April 15, 2025
Sam Schulhofer-Wohl
This essay examines the trade-offs between different monetary policy implementation methods through the lens of the consolidated government balance sheet and income statement
April 3, 2025
Jesus Cañas and Diego Morales-Burnett
The Texas economy grew slightly below trend through the first quarter of 2025. While job growth appears just off its long-term annual trend rate of about 2.1 percent, the Dallas Fed Texas Business Outlook Surveys (TBOS) point to slowing activity in both the services and manufacturing sectors.
April 1, 2025
Alexander Chudik and Ron Mau
The U.S. has enjoyed strong payroll job gains in the past couple of years despite generally restrictive monetary policy. The sectoral composition of employment reveals job growth has been concentrated in areas that are the least sensitive to national employment fluctuations over the business cycle.
March 25, 2025
Isabel Dhillon and Pia Orrenius
While experiencing exceptional economic growth over the past decade, data show that Texas is last or lagging the nation in several key areas.
March 4, 2025
Anthony Murphy, Ben Munyan and Dylan Ryfe
While the key measures suggest that conditions that hamper a bank’s resilience to economic adversity are marginally higher than before the pandemic in 2019, we expect further declines in bank stress levels as interest rates normalize.
February 25, 2025
J. Scott Davis
The ratio of house prices to rents in the U.S. has risen 20 percent since first quarter 2020, coinciding with the beginning of the pandemic. The ratio is near its previous high in 2006. The future course of inflation may well be influenced by how this now-lofty ratio reverts to a more usual level.
February 21, 2025
R. Jay Kahn and Matthew McCormick
Traders in the repurchase agreement (repo) market protect themselves from the default of their counterparties through margin collected via haircuts on repo transactions. Recent research showing that haircuts on many Treasury repo transactions are low or zero has raised concerns that margining practices in this market are insufficiently strict.
February 18, 2025
Lutz Kilian, Michael D. Plante and Alexander W. Richter
Notwithstanding the attention geopolitical events in oil markets have attracted, we find that geopolitical oil price risk is unlikely to generate sizable recessionary effects.
February 11, 2025
Tyler Atkinson and Ron Mau
January inflation data were stronger in 2023 and 2024 than forecasters expected, even after more encouraging results had been reported for the ends of 2022 and 2023. Rather than reflecting seasonal adjustment difficulties, this pattern may be caused by a large share of firms changing prices at the start of a new year.
February 4, 2025
Isabel Brizuela, Emily Kerr and Robert Leigh
Texas companies reported rising service sector revenue and a resumption of production growth in the manufacturing sector after weakness in 2023 and much of 2024, according to the Dallas Fed’s Texas Business Outlook Surveys (TBOS).