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Research and analysis of economic trends and developments

Xiaoqing Zhou

In Depth: While hostilities between Iran and Israel ended quickly in June 2025 without a major oil supply disruption, it is worthwhile to explore the impact on inflation and inflation expectations if this geopolitical event had turned out differently.

Ali Ozdagli, Dylan Ryfe and Lillian Han

Despite asset managers playing an increasingly pivotal role in investment decisions—leading to more similar portfolios—analysis of life insurance firms and their advisers reveals a relatively small threat to financial stability.

Xiaohan Zhang and Grace Ozor

When the Fed lowers its benchmark policy rate, the reduction is usually reflected in a variety of consumer finance rates, notably mortgages. However, there are reasons to believe that such a reduction might not prompt an increase in the volume of mortgage refinances and prepayment activity as has historically occurred.

Michael D. Plante, Alexander W. Richter and Sarah Zubairy

The U.S. faces a historically high federal debt-to-GDP ratio, a measure of debt relative to economic output. But how sensitive are interest rates to higher debt?

Hugo De Vere, Srini Ramaswamy and Sam Schulhofer-Wohl

In Depth: The Fed has floating-rate liabilities as well as long-lived, zero-interest liabilities. A barbell of floating-rate and long-duration assets would best offset the interest rate risk from these liabilities. Investing in a more diversified mix of durations, while matching the average duration of assets, could be more practical than the barbell approach but would leave a substantial portion of interest rate risk unhedged.

Christine Docherty and Alessio Saretto

Reciprocal deposit networks are designed to increase the total amount eligible for FDIC deposit insurance. In recent years, growth of the networks has accelerated, prompting a re-evaluation of the existing deposit insurance framework and raising at least three questions.

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Dallas Fed Economics