September 26, 2024
Laila Assanie, Diego Morales-Burnett and Ethan Dixon
The Texas economic expansion continued in August despite some signs of slowing. Employment growth strengthened, rebounding from weakness in the prior two months.
September 24, 2024
Xudong An, Stuart A. Gabriel and Nitzan Tzur-Ilan
Using California's Camp Fire as a natural laboratory, this article examines the effects of both fire and smoke-related air pollution on household credit card spending and repayment.
September 6, 2024
Sam Schulhofer-Wohl
Observers often assert that stigma—a perception that depositors, investors or others will penalize an institution for borrowing from the discount window—keeps banks from borrowing when they should, making the facilities less effective. Dallas Fed Senior Vice President Sam Schulhofer-Wohl argues that some harms of discount window stigma can be mitigated regardless of whether stigma itself persists.
September 3, 2024
J. Scott Davis and Pon Sagnanert
The purchasing power parity theory of exchange rates is easily understood: A basket of goods should have the same price in different markets when that price is expressed in a common currency. However, the relationship between market-determined exchange rates and inflation shocks is not always straightforward. In the short run, central bank transparency can become an important determinant.
August 27, 2024
Luis A. Lopez, Nitzan Tzur-Ilan and Jackson Owen
Wildfire smoke pollution may significantly affect housing market activity in locations hundreds or even thousands of miles away from the fires.
August 20, 2024
Falk Bräuning, Victoria Ivashina, Ali Ozdagli and Jackson Owen
An evolving change affecting the expanding, highly leveraged corporate loan sector may impact how the economy responds to adverse shocks.
August 13, 2024
Enrique Martínez García and Lauren Spits
A review of market-based and private forecasters’ expectations suggests that U.S. housing may be at an inflection point. U.S. income growth and, more broadly, the robust U.S. labor market will likely help wring out pandemic-era excesses that led to rapidly deteriorating affordability.
August 8, 2024
Laila Assanie and Robert Leigh
The housing market slowed, with sales down and inventories rising. Data reflecting strain among small businesses and low- and moderate-income households appeared mixed. Some data point to rising stress, while others suggest resilience.
August 6, 2024
Ali Ozdagli and Maddie Shaheen
Our research suggests that if the world becomes increasingly interconnected through international trade, entrepreneurship rates will decrease over time.
July 16, 2024
Tyler Atkinson and Ron Mau
In the short run, running the economy hot—with output growth above potential—comes with the cost of additional inflation. But policymakers cannot exploit this relationship forever because inflation expectations won’t remain anchored, as the public comes to expect a higher level of inflation for any given level of output.