A comprehensive list of recently added postings on Dallasfed.org.
Trade Costs and Inflation Dynamics
This paper exploits bilateral trade flows of final and intermediate goods together with the structure of static trade models that deliver gravity equations to identify exogenous changes in trade costs between countries. The authors then use a local projections approach to assess the effects of trade cost shocks on consumer price (CPI) inflation.
March 4, 2025
Mexico’s economic growth slows in 2024; outlook weakens
Mexico’s GDP grew only 0.9 percent year over year in fourth quarter 2024, after expanding 2.4 percent in 2023 and 4.6 percent in 2022. Economic growth slowed, mainly due to lower investment, slowing consumption and a contracting energy sector.
March 4, 2025
Decline in bank stress likely to continue as interest rates normalize
While the key measures suggest that conditions that hamper a bank’s resilience to economic adversity are marginally higher than before the pandemic in 2019, we expect further declines in bank stress levels as interest rates normalize.
March 4, 2025
Mexico, U.S. and China offer an evolving ‘triangular’ trade relationship
Enrique Dussel Peters, a professor at the Graduate School of Economics at the Universidad Nacional Autonóma de México and coordinator of the university’s Center for Chinese–Mexican Studies, discusses trade flows between the U.S., Mexico and China and their prospects.
March 3, 2025
Permian Basin Economic Indicators
Employment in the Permian Basin region grew in the fourth quarter. The unemployment rate decreased slightly, while average hourly earnings rose in December.
March 3, 2025
Southern New Mexico Economic Indicators
Economic indicators were mixed in Las Cruces in fourth quarter 2024 after a slow third quarter. Employment grew solidly; however, unemployment rose.
February 28, 2025
Impulse Response Diagnostics for Priors on Parameters in Structural Vector Autoregressions
This paper proposes verifying that the prior distribution of impulse responses in structural VAR models is not unintentionally informative and discusses diagnostic tools to help practitioners ensure their priors do not unduly influence their reported conclusions.
February 25, 2025
Growth in Texas service sector activity continues despite surge in uncertainty
Texas service sector activity increased in February, according to business executives responding to the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey.
February 25, 2025
Evidence suggests U.S. house price/rent ratio, real home prices to decline
The ratio of house prices to rents in the U.S. has risen 20 percent since first quarter 2020, coinciding with the beginning of the pandemic. The ratio is near its previous high in 2006. The future course of inflation may well be influenced by how this now-lofty ratio reverts to a more usual level.
February 25, 2025
Efficient and effective central bank balance sheets
At a Bank of England conference on central bank balance sheets, President Lorie Logan laid out two key principles: efficient and effective. It’s heartening that central banks around the world have converged on some approaches to uphold these twin principles.
February 25, 2025