Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey

Results summary

Historical data are available from June 2004 to the most current release month.

*Shown is the number of consecutive months of expansion or contraction in the underlying indicator. Expansion is indicated by a positive index reading and denoted by a (+) in the table. Contraction is indicated by a negative index reading and denoted by a (–) in the table.

**Shown is the number of consecutive months of improvement or worsening in the underlying indicator. Improvement is indicated by a positive index reading and denoted by a (+) in the table. Worsening is indicated by a negative index reading and denoted by a (–) in the table.

Data have been seasonally adjusted as necessary.

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Comments from survey respondents

Survey participants are given the opportunity to submit comments on current issues that may be affecting their businesses. Some comments have been edited for grammar and clarity.

• It is a very dynamic time. I agree with the approach and need to bring manufacturing back to the U.S. so that we have the internal capability for national security interests. The ability to forecast and to understand consumer confidence drivers to the basic materials, construction, automotive markets, etc., are the most difficult we have seen since the COVID era.
• Tariff uncertainty and actual impact is likely to be significant for the business and ongoing projects.

• This has been a crazy few weeks in the news. We export about 20 percent of our production. Our largest customers are in the United Kingdom and France, but we also export to China and many other countries. We import a few raw materials, but this isn't directly significant. The current tariff negotiations are having an effect in several ways. We accelerated one order to China to beat the reciprocal tariffs, and we expect our China sales to go to zero until the tariff situation changes. We are seeing some European customers stock up on inventory in anticipation of future tariffs. Most of our U.S. customers continue to buy, but we have seen a 25 percent drop in incoming RFQs [requests for quotations] in April compared with the average of previous months. Assuming this continues, we expect to see roughly a 10–15 percent decline in sales in May. We believe that this is largely due to uncertainty in our customer base driven by the tariff situation and potential knock-on effects to the general economy.
• There is really no way to predict anything accurately six months out or even six weeks out now for our industry due to the tariff and trade uncertainty. Carve-outs for large electronics businesses (cellphones and laptops) leaves small business burdened to deal with tariffs on our own, which are likely to cause delays, cancellations and early product obsolescence on existing products and orders. We have already had to turn around and refuse shipments because customers cannot afford the tariffs, delaying our ability to build, which will eventually lead to job losses. If this continues for any length of time, many small companies are likely to be significantly hurt or even gone. If we want to bring manufacturing back to the U.S., can we try not to kill the companies that can actually help do that before we get the chance? Maybe we can think about using a scalpel rather than a sledgehammer? The risk we face now is far greater and less understood than what we saw during the COVID shutdown. Consumers and businesses will limit investment and orders until there is some sense of stability, and we have already experienced this with smaller orders and delayed orders. It's chaos right now.
• Please lower interest rates. We need it in order to boost the economy due to the uncertainty and tariffs.
• President Trump, tariffs and maximum business uncertainty [are issues affecting our business]. [We see a] probable recession soon.

• There is no stability in business, so it is difficult to plan. Thus, we are not making commitments for future growth, not knowing if or when future growth will exist.
• Our backlog is not building. Bid activity is moderate, but projects are not being released/started.
• There was a temporary supply hiccup in April on a key component; we expect it to resolve in the next month or two.

• The current economic environment is confusing. President Trump keeps things in turmoil, and we do not know what he will do next. So far, import prices for raw materials have not increased. Food service and retail sales have maintained their growth projections.
• Chaos at the federal level, tariffs and resulting raw ingredient costs, decimation of partner relationships due to canceled contracts "for convenience" along with stagflation concerns [are issues affecting our business]. DOGE [Department of Government Efficiency] is needed. The DOGE without a follow-up plan does nothing for the domestic tranquility needed (stable arena for business to function within).
• Tariffs and tariff uncertainty are wreaking havoc on our supply lines and capital spending plans.
• It is unknown what effect the tariffs are going to have on the general economy. Luckily, we do not import or export many items (except for spices), so we are not directly impacted by the contemplated tariffs.
• We are still worried about labor price increases due to the trade war and immigration.

• Nothing is easy. Forecasting is extremely challenging in this time of uncertainty. Committing to growth initiatives is anxiety-riddled. Helping our employees keep beans on their table and a roof over their heads is harder. We believe the direction the current administration is leading our country is on target, but the pain to get there may be longer and more intense than originally anticipated.
• We are experiencing a strong month and, hopefully, this trend will continue.
• Due to tariffs, we do not know what to expect.

• There is too much uncertainty all over for any increases [in business] soon.
• Tariffs and the general market have made decisions challenging. Items we are only able to source internationally are making our daily business decisions difficult. Raw materials have increased, and there is not an easy way to pass those increases to our customers.
• Tariffs are causing uncertainty and a reduction in demand for our products. We buy all raw materials domestically but are still experiencing adverse business climate due to reduction in demand.
• Tariffs may drive us out of business.
• Tariffs [are an issue affecting our business].

• Tariffs. Tariffs. Tariffs. There was a better way to do this.

• We have seen continued slow order entry now for four months.

• Tariffs are impacting factory input costs significantly.

• Capital expenditures are focused on adding new product offerings.
• The aluminum industry is currently in a holding pattern, awaiting final decisions on tariffs. If the Section 232 tariffs on Mexico and Canada remain in place, it would help level the playing field and remove their pricing advantage when selling into the U.S. However, if Mexico and Canada continue to receive exemptions—as they have since the initial implementation of Section 232 during the first Trump administration—it will likely lead to further job losses in our segment of the aluminum industry. Our company, for example, has put a multimillion-dollar project on hold until we receive clear direction on this issue. China is now building aluminum plants in Mexico to avoid tariffs if they ship from China. Our company is a proponent of tariffs to combat dumping and subsidies other countries are doing for shipments into the U.S.

• The tariff issue is a mess, and we are now starting to see vendors passing along increases, which we will have to in turn pass along to our customers. Because of this, we are very concerned about general business activity for the next six to nine months or until these trade agreements get worked out.
• The administration’s tariff policy is insanity. It is creating havoc in the manufacturing business.

• Sales are down, and uncertainty is very high. We import raw materials and finished goods and are very nervous about tariff impacts (especially China). We will likely need to increase prices, which will likely hurt demand/sales. We are expecting to get hit on both the supply and demand side. There is a lot of uncertainty.

• We are unsure of the tariff impact.
• There is too much uncertainty, including a possible recession. Interest rates are too high. The Federal Reserve always seems to be late for their own party.