Globalization Institute Working Paper
Forecasting Inflation in Open Economies: What Can a NOEM Model Do?
This paper evaluates the forecasting ability when inflation is viewed as an inherently global phenomenon through the lens of the workhorse New Open Economy Macro (NOEM) model.
December 20, 2022
Blockchain technology aims to expand role of digital transactions on internet
While the resources devoted to blockchain technology development have increased dramatically the past few years, the technology’s ultimate success depends on whether blockchain protocols can interact with the current economic landscape and how that occurs.
December 20, 2022
Globalization Institute Working Paper
A Theory of Gross and Net Capital Flows over the Global Financial Cycle
This paper develops a theory to account for changes in prices of risky and safe assets and gross and net capital flows over the global financial cycle.
December 19, 2022
Globalization Institute Working Paper
Commodity Exports, Financial Frictions and International Spillovers
This paper offers a solution to the international co-movement puzzle found in open-economy macroeconomic models.
December 16, 2022
Southwest Economy, Third Quarter 2022
Supply chains slowly mend as Texas firms view recovery in 2023
Since the
COVID-19 pandemic
began in early 2020,
disrupted global supply
chains have strained
Texas businesses trying
to meet strong demand.
October 03, 2022
Southwest Economy, Third Quarter 2022
Globalization remains a force despite pandemic, political strains
Pol Antràs, the Robert G. Ory Professor of Economics at Harvard University, discusses international trade flows and what the evidence suggests about the world economy and the accompanying debate about whether an era of deglobalization may be at hand.
October 03, 2022
Research Department Working Papers
Consumption and Hours in the United States and Europe
This paper documents large differences between the United States and Europe in allocations of expenditures and time for both market and home activities.
September 08, 2022
Vaccines were key to curbing COVID-19 in Europe; other measures also useful
Vaccine uptake was the most important factor in reducing effective transmission rates in 2021, though the other factors helped bring infections under control.
August 23, 2022
Research Department Working Papers
Uncertainty, Stock Prices and Debt Structure: Evidence from the U.S.-China Trade War
Using the recent U.S.-China trade war as a laboratory, this paper shows that policy uncertainty shocks have a significant impact on stock prices.
August 19, 2022
Globalization Institute Working Paper
Flexible Average Inflation Targeting: How Much Is U.S. Monetary Policy Changing?
One major outcome of the Federal Reserve’s 2019–20 framework review was the adoption of a Flexible Average Inflation Targeting (FAIT) strategy in August 2020. Using synthetic control methods, this paper documents that U.S. inflation rose post-FAIT considerably more than predicted had the strategy not changed.
July 30, 2022