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Forecasting

 

  • Texas Employment Forecast

    The Texas Employment Forecast indicates that jobs will increase 2.5 percent in 2023, with an 80 percent confidence band of 2.1 to 3.0 percent.

  • Research Department Working Papers

    Financial Shocks in an Uncertain Economy

    This paper focuses on some of the lessons we have learned over the years: (i) uncertainty and tail risk have cyclical variation; (ii) financial shocks can have a significant effect on macroeconomic outcomes; (iii) the impact of shocks is stronger in periods of high volatility.

  • Gazing at r-star: Gauging U.S. monetary policy via the natural rate of interest

    While estimating r-star is fraught with difficulty, the latest evidence suggests U.S. monetary policy likely turned restrictive at the start of 2023, after the Federal Reserve started raising rates in March 2022.

  • Rent inflation remains on track to slow over the coming year

    The rental rate for new leases increased about 15 percent in 2021, despite a modest increase in the most commonly watched U.S. inflation gauges. A forecast of rent inflation currently anticipates it slowing to below 6 percent by the end of first quarter 2024.

  • Texas Employment Forecast

    The Texas Employment Forecast indicates that jobs will increase 2.8 percent in 2023, with an 80 percent confidence band of 2.2 to 3.3 percent.

  • Texas Employment Forecast

    The Texas Employment Forecast indicates that jobs will increase 2.6 percent in 2023, with an 80 percent confidence band of 2.0 to 3.2 percent.

  • Texas Employment Forecast

    The Texas Employment Forecast indicates that jobs will increase 2.8 percent in 2023, with an 80 percent confidence band of 2.1 to 3.5 percent.

  • Texas Employment Forecast

    The Texas Employment Forecast indicates that jobs will increase 2.8 percent in 2023, with an 80 percent confidence band of 2.1 to 3.5 percent.

  • Texas Employment Forecast

    The Texas Employment Forecast indicates that jobs will increase 2.8 percent in 2023, with an 80 percent confidence band of 2.0 to 3.5 percent.

  • Job vacancy, unemployment relationship clouds ‘soft landing’ prospects

    Some economists have argued that because the job vacancy rate has been well above its prepandemic level, there is plenty of room for vacancies to fall before the unemployment rate must rise.