Texas Employment Forecast
The Texas Employment Forecast indicates that jobs will increase 2.5 percent in 2023, with an 80 percent confidence band of 2.1 to 3.0 percent.
July 21, 2023
Research Department Working Papers
Financial Shocks in an Uncertain Economy
This paper focuses on some of the lessons we have learned over the years: (i) uncertainty and tail risk have cyclical variation; (ii) financial shocks can have a significant effect on macroeconomic outcomes; (iii) the impact of shocks is stronger in periods of high volatility.
July 07, 2023
Gazing at r-star: Gauging U.S. monetary policy via the natural rate of interest
While estimating r-star is fraught with difficulty, the latest evidence suggests U.S. monetary policy likely turned restrictive at the start of 2023, after the Federal Reserve started raising rates in March 2022.
July 03, 2023
Rent inflation remains on track to slow over the coming year
The rental rate for new leases increased about 15 percent in 2021, despite a modest increase in the most commonly watched U.S. inflation gauges. A forecast of rent inflation currently anticipates it slowing to below 6 percent by the end of first quarter 2024.
June 20, 2023
Texas Employment Forecast
The Texas Employment Forecast indicates that jobs will increase 2.8 percent in 2023, with an 80 percent confidence band of 2.2 to 3.3 percent.
June 16, 2023
Texas Employment Forecast
The Texas Employment Forecast indicates that jobs will increase 2.6 percent in 2023, with an 80 percent confidence band of 2.0 to 3.2 percent.
May 19, 2023
Texas Employment Forecast
The Texas Employment Forecast indicates that jobs will increase 2.8 percent in 2023, with an 80 percent confidence band of 2.1 to 3.5 percent.
April 21, 2023
Texas Employment Forecast
The Texas Employment Forecast indicates that jobs will increase 2.8 percent in 2023, with an 80 percent confidence band of 2.1 to 3.5 percent.
March 24, 2023
Texas Employment Forecast
The Texas Employment Forecast indicates that jobs will increase 2.8 percent in 2023, with an 80 percent confidence band of 2.0 to 3.5 percent.
March 10, 2023
Job vacancy, unemployment relationship clouds ‘soft landing’ prospects
Some economists have argued that because the job vacancy rate has been well above its prepandemic level, there is plenty of room for vacancies to fall before the unemployment rate must rise.
February 07, 2023