Texas Employment Forecast
The Texas Employment Forecast indicates jobs will increase 1.6 percent in 2025, with an 80 percent confidence band of 0.8 to 2.4 percent.
February 07, 2025
As population trends shift, where will future workers come from?
Population is a fundamental determinant of a country’s productive capacity. More specifically, labor, along with capital and the efficiency with which the two can be combined (total factor productivity) determine how much a country can produce at any point in time.
January 07, 2025
Inflation stress and concern remain elevated despite stabilizing prices
Despite consumer price inflation falling considerably since peaking in 2022, household inflation-related stress and concern remain elevated, having dropped only slightly.
December 31, 2024
Texas Employment Forecast
The Texas Employment Forecast estimates jobs will increase 1.6 percent in 2024, with an 80 percent confidence band of 1.5 to 1.7 percent.
December 20, 2024
Rising unemployment doesn’t counter signs of strong GDP growth
Real (inflation-adjusted) GDP grew strongly during the second and third quarters of 2024, increasing at an annualized pace of 2.9 percent. Yet, the unemployment rate also rose 0.4 percentage points, an unusually large amount except during recessions.
December 03, 2024
Research Department Working Papers
Labor Market Effects of Worker- and Employer-Targeted Immigration Enforcement
This paper finds that immigration enforcement at the worksite is more effective when targeting the employer, such as conducting an audit, than when targeting the workers, such as in a raid.
November 19, 2024
Texas Employment Forecast
The Texas Employment Forecast estimates jobs will increase 2.2 percent in 2024, with an 80 percent confidence band of 2.0 to 2.4 percent.
November 15, 2024
Texas Employment Forecast
The Texas Employment Forecast estimates jobs will increase 2.5 percent in 2024, with an 80 percent confidence band of 2.3 to 2.7 percent.
October 18, 2024
Rising unemployment does not mean recession is inevitable
The sort of increase seen in the U.S. unemployment rate over the past year is an oft-noted predictor of recession. Yet, forecasters currently expect only a modest increase in unemployment with no recession. Is this a reasonable expectation, and if so, how is this unemployment episode different from others?
October 08, 2024
Texas Employment Forecast
The Texas Employment Forecast estimates jobs will increase 2.2 percent in 2024, with an 80 percent confidence band of 1.9 to 2.5 percent.
September 20, 2024