Banking Conditions Survey

Special Questions

June 2024

For this survey, respondents were asked supplemental questions about deposits, credit standards, commercial real estate lending and interest rates. Data were collected June 18-26, and 75 bankers responded to the survey.

1. Over the past six weeks, how has your volume of core deposits changed?

	Jun. '23 (percent)	Aug. '23 (percent)	Sep. '23 (percent)	Dec. '23 (percent)	Mar. '24 (percent)	Jun. '24 (percent)
Increased significantly	0.0	3.0	4.6	4.8	2.9	2.7
Increased slightly	26.2	31.3	27.7	36.5	45.6	42.5
No change	23.0	20.9	20.0	25.4	26.5	28.8
Decreased slightly	45.9	41.8	41.5	31.7	23.5	26.0
Decreased significantly	4.9	3.0	6.2	1.6	1.5	0.0

NOTE: 73 responses.

2. Over the next six weeks, how do you expect your volume of core deposits to change?

	Jun. '23 (percent)	Aug. '23 (percent)	Sep. '23 (percent)	Dec. '23 (percent)	Mar. '24 (percent)	Jun. '24 (percent)
Increase significantly	1.6	3.0	1.5	7.9	1.5	0.0
Increase slightly	30.6	35.8	41.5	49.2	41.2	47.2
No change	33.9	34.3	30.8	28.6	29.4	36.1
Decrease slightly	33.9	26.9	23.1	14.3	27.9	16.7
Decrease significantly	0.0	0.0	3.1	0.0	0.0	0.0

NOTE: 72 responses.

3. How do you expect credit standards and terms to change over the next three months for the following loan categories?

	Ease considerably (percent)	Ease somewhat (percent)	Remain unchanged (percent)	Tighten somewhat (percent)	Tighten considerably (percent)
Commercial and industrial	0.0	1.4	72.5	24.6	1.4
Commercial real estate	0.0	0.0	76.1	19.4	4.5
Residential real estate	0.0	2.9	88.6	8.6	0.0
Consumer	0.0	2.8	77.8	19.4	0.0

NOTES: 72 responses. This question was also posed in Aug '23, Sep '23, Dec. '23 and Mar. '24.

4. How do you expect credit standards and terms to change over the next three months for the following categories of commercial real estate lending?

	Ease considerably (percent)	Ease somewhat (percent)	Remain unchanged (percent)	Tighten somewhat (percent)	Tighten considerably (percent)
Construction and land development	0.0	0.0	71.6	25.4	3.0
Industrial	0.0	1.5	73.1	23.9	1.5
Retail	0.0	3.0	66.7	27.3	3.0
Multifamily	0.0	1.5	66.7	27.3	4.5
Office	0.0	0.0	57.6	22.7	19.7
Hotels/lodging	0.0	1.5	64.2	25.4	9.0
Other	0.0	0.0	87.7	12.3	0.0

NOTES: 67 responses. This question was also posed in Sep '23, Dec. '23 and Mar. '24.

5. As of June 18, the federal funds target rate is in the range of 5.25–5.5. What do you expect the federal funds target range to be at the end of 2024?

	Median	Mode	Range
Mar. '24	4.75-5	4.75-5	0.25-5.5
Jun. '24	5-5.25	5-5.25	0.25-5.5

NOTE: 66 responses.

Special Questions Comments

These comments have been edited for publication.

The election has the potential to have significant economic impact. Given low unemployment, unless inflation drops below or near 2 percent, I would see the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) deferring rate changes until that picture is clearer and they understand what they are dealing with. Thus, my prediction of what rates will be at year end would be determined by how much the election disrupts the economic outlook.
I don't expect the FOMC to reduce rates until the December meeting.
We need to get inflation under control, and keeping rates up is helping move it in the right direction.
By the end of the year, we are expecting to see some real measurable slowdown in the economy.

Questions regarding the Banking Conditions Survey can be addressed to Mariam Yousuf at mariam.yousuf@dal.frb.org.