Global Institute articles

 

• Mexico Economic Update

  Mexico’s economy contracts in first quarter

  Mexico’s GDP fell an annualized 3.2 percent in the first quarter of 2026, according to official preliminary estimates.

  May 07, 2026

• Dallas Fed Economics

  Effects of realized tariff changes on PCE prices peaked in first quarter 2026

  We compare how price growth evolved in 2025 in core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) categories facing realized tariff rate changes.

  May 05, 2026

• Southwest Economy

  Ciudad Juarez retools amid job losses

  Ciudad Juarez, across the Rio Grande from El Paso, lost nearly one-fifth of its manufacturing jobs over a two-year period. The decline reflects the city’s move into higher value-added, less labor-intensive production of electronics and hardware demanded for the U.S.’s burgeoning data center build-out.

  April 08, 2026

• Working Paper

  The Impact of the 2026 Iran War on U.S. Inflation: A Scenario Analysis

  This paper shows how to assess the inflationary impact of the rise in the price of oil caused by the 2026 Iran War.

  April 07, 2026

• Working Paper

  Multinationals and Structural Transformation

  Using confidential microdata from Japan and exploiting a quasi-exogenous reform that expanded foreign investment opportunities in China, this paper assesses empirically how this reform affected employment at firms in both the host country (China) and the home country (Japan).

  March 30, 2026

• Mexico Economic Update

  Mexican economy weakens at the start of 2026

  Mexico’s monthly proxy for GDP fell 0.9 percent in January after the economy expanded an upwardly revised 1.8 percent in 2025.

  March 23, 2026

• Dallas Fed Economics

  What the closure of the Strait of Hormuz means for the global economy

  The ongoing military conflict between Iran and the United States and Israel has raised concerns about a major disruption of global oil supplies driven by geopolitical events. This conflict has involved attacks on oil infrastructure in neighboring countries, including Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates.

  March 20, 2026

• Special Report

  Taiwan firms key to nearshoring and reshoring to support AI boom

  While China’s trade and investment with Mexico have attracted significant attention, Taiwan firms’ investment in both Mexico and Texas is arguably more significant for the evolution of U.S.–Mexico production networks.

  March 06, 2026

• Mexico Economic Update

  Mexico's economy rebounds in fourth quarter 2025

  Mexico's economy expanded at year-end 2025. GDP grew 1.2 percent year-over-year in the fourth quarter after contracting 0.2 percent in the third quarter.

  February 13, 2026

• Southwest Economy

  Mexican residents favor local retailers over cross-border shopping in Texas

  Despite a relatively stable peso-dollar exchange rate that would normally favor shopping in the U.S., Mexican consumers increasingly stay closer to home.

  January 16, 2026