Articles providing critical insights and analysis on monetary policy issues impacting the U.S. economy and its deep financial and economic relationship with Mexico.
Weighing Texas economic resilience amid tariffs, workforce challenges
Ray Perryman, principal of Waco-based The Perryman Group, has been an observer of the Texas economy for more than four decades. He offers his views of what has propelled Texas since the 1980s oil bust and the state’s future prospects, and he recounts how he grew his economics firm.
March 07, 2025
Research Department Working Papers
Trade Costs and Inflation Dynamics
This paper exploits bilateral trade flows of final and intermediate goods together with the structure of static trade models that deliver gravity equations to identify exogenous changes in trade costs between countries. The authors then use a local projections approach to assess the effects of trade cost shocks on consumer price (CPI) inflation.
March 04, 2025
Mexico Economic Update
Mexico’s economic growth slows in 2024; outlook weakens
Mexico’s GDP grew only 0.9 percent year over year in fourth quarter 2024, after expanding 2.4 percent in 2023 and 4.6 percent in 2022. Economic growth slowed, mainly due to lower investment, slowing consumption and a contracting energy sector.
March 04, 2025
Mexico, U.S. and China offer an evolving ‘triangular’ trade relationship
Enrique Dussel Peters, a professor at the Graduate School of Economics at the Universidad Nacional Autonóma de México and coordinator of the university’s Center for Chinese–Mexican Studies, discusses trade flows between the U.S., Mexico and China and their prospects.
March 03, 2025
Evidence suggests U.S. house price/rent ratio, real home prices to decline
The ratio of house prices to rents in the U.S. has risen 20 percent since first quarter 2020, coinciding with the beginning of the pandemic. The ratio is near its previous high in 2006. The future course of inflation may well be influenced by how this now-lofty ratio reverts to a more usual level.
February 25, 2025
Geopolitical oil price risk not a major driver of global macroeconomic fluctuations
Notwithstanding the attention geopolitical events in oil markets have attracted, we find that geopolitical oil price risk is unlikely to generate sizable recessionary effects.
February 18, 2025
Globalization Institute Working Paper
Unequal Climate Policy in an Unequal World
This paper studies climate policy in an economy with heterogeneous households, two types of goods (clean and dirty), and a climate externality from the dirty good.
January 31, 2025
As population trends shift, where will future workers come from?
Population is a fundamental determinant of a country’s productive capacity. More specifically, labor, along with capital and the efficiency with which the two can be combined (total factor productivity) determine how much a country can produce at any point in time.
January 07, 2025
Research Department Working Papers
An Anatomy of U.S. Establishments’ Trade Linkages in Global Value Chains
Global value chains (GVC) are a pervasive feature of modern production, but they are hard to measure. Using U.S. Census microdata, this paper develops novel measures of the linkages between U.S. manufacturing establishments’ imports and exports. The paper documents three new GVC patterns.
December 27, 2024
Research Department Working Papers
Structural Change in Sub-Saharan Africa: An Open Economy Perspective
This paper studies the evolution of manufacturing value added shares in 11 sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries through the lens of an open economy model of structural change.
December 24, 2024