Articles providing critical insights and analysis on monetary policy issues impacting the U.S. economy and its deep financial and economic relationship with Mexico.
Mexico’s economy surprises to the upside, but outlook is weak
The Mexican economy grew during the first half of 2025, surprising analysts who had anticipated a recession. However, the outlook is weak, with the consensus forecast implying economic slowdown during the second half.
October 16, 2025
Innovation promises efficiencies in remittances, if regulation can keep up
As payments technologies evolve faster than the rules governing them, understanding both the mechanics and policy trade-offs of cross-border transfers is increasingly important.
October 15, 2025
Research Department Working Papers
Household Consumption and Savings over the Life Cycle: The Roles of Demographics and Durables
This paper provides a novel, developing country perspective by analyzing patterns of life-cycle consumption, income and savings rates in India.
October 14, 2025
Payment system design can encourage intraday liquidity efficiency
Efficient allocation of bank reserves improves central bank balance sheet efficiency. Frictions in such redistribution can affect monetary policy implementation.
October 02, 2025
Mexico Economic Update
Mexico’s economy continues growing through second quarter, outlook remains weak
The latest data available were mixed. While output, exports and retail sales grew, industrial production and employment declined. The peso was stable against the dollar, and inflation remained elevated.
October 02, 2025
Central bank swaps offer dollar crisis lifeline to non-U.S. banks
Starting in late 2007, the Federal Reserve, in partnership with a few major foreign central banks, began offering central bank dollar liquidity swap lines as an important liquidity backstop.
September 30, 2025
China expands Mexico investment but notably lags U.S., other G7 economies
China has been the fastest growing source of foreign direct investment (FDI) to Mexico in recent years. Chinese investment has also become a prominent issue in U.S.-Mexico economic relations. However, this FDI remains small compared with U.S. investment in Mexico.
September 26, 2025
Research Department Working Papers
Pandemic and War Inflation: Lessons from the International Experience
This paper examines the drivers of the 2020–23 inflation surge, with an emphasis on the similarities and differences across countries, as well as the role that monetary policy frameworks might have played in shaping central banks’ responses.
September 19, 2025
Are trade deficits good or bad, and can tariffs reduce them?
Typically, trade deficits are viewed through a lens of exports and imports, with the latter exceeding the former. While that is a useful exercise, it’s also helpful to examine deficits through a macroeconomic lens.
September 04, 2025
Bubble thought: What beliefs can reveal about housing market risks
Survey-based forecast data on home price growth are a surer indicator of housing market exuberance than traditional valuation ratios, such as price-to-income or price-to-rent.
September 02, 2025