Articles from
Dallas Fed Economics providing critical insights on trade, immigration, and other major international issues, along with in-depth analysis of monetary policy challenges affecting the U.S. economy and its deep financial and economic ties with Mexico.
Evidence suggests U.S. house price/rent ratio, real home prices to decline
The ratio of house prices to rents in the U.S. has risen 20 percent since first quarter 2020, coinciding with the beginning of the pandemic. The ratio is near its previous high in 2006. The future course of inflation may well be influenced by how this now-lofty ratio reverts to a more usual level.
February 25, 2025
Geopolitical oil price risk not a major driver of global macroeconomic fluctuations
Notwithstanding the attention geopolitical events in oil markets have attracted, we find that geopolitical oil price risk is unlikely to generate sizable recessionary effects.
February 18, 2025
As population trends shift, where will future workers come from?
Population is a fundamental determinant of a country’s productive capacity. More specifically, labor, along with capital and the efficiency with which the two can be combined (total factor productivity) determine how much a country can produce at any point in time.
January 07, 2025
Mexico nearshoring yet to yield big investment despite global trade tensions
The resulting reality surrounding nearshoring’s impact on Mexico’s economy is nuanced. While Mexico has made gains, many of them stem from trade diversion rather than large-scale foreign capital relocation.
December 05, 2024
More household savings offset increased government borrowing since 2008
Large government budget deficits over the past 15 years have led to a large increase in the stock of government debt. But these government deficits have been matched by an increase in U.S. household savings.
November 26, 2024
Blame higher U.S. equity prices for recent moves in U.S. external liabilities
The U.S. net foreign asset position—the value of foreign assets held by U.S. residents minus the value of U.S. assets held by foreign residents—has fallen sharply since the 2008 Global Financial Crisis.
November 12, 2024
Impact of inflation shocks on foreign exchange rates reflects central bank stature
The purchasing power parity theory of exchange rates is easily understood: A basket of goods should have the same price in different markets when that price is expressed in a common currency. However, the relationship between market-determined exchange rates and inflation shocks is not always straightforward. In the short run, central bank transparency can become an important determinant.
September 03, 2024
Trade liberalization reduces entrepreneurship rate
Our research suggests that if the world becomes increasingly interconnected through international trade, entrepreneurship rates will decrease over time.
August 06, 2024
Surging population growth from immigration may have little effect on inflation
U.S. population growth increased sharply recently following a wave of immigration. This article examines what this surprise immigration surge could mean for the macroeconomy.
July 09, 2024
Unprecedented U.S. immigration surge boosts job growth, output
U.S. labor market conditions are among the main drivers of an unprecedented surge of immigration, the exact size and consequences of which are still being assessed.
July 02, 2024