Dallas Fed Economics Archive
Analysis and insights to enhance your understanding of the economy
October 15, 2019
Michael Morris, Robert Rich and Joseph Tracy
This is the second of three articles that talk about the natural rate of unemployment, the unemployment rate that would prevail in a “neutral” labor market after removing all movement due to the business cycle.
October 8, 2019
Michael Morris, Robert Rich and Joseph Tracy
The unemployment rate is a widely viewed gauge of U.S. labor market slack or tightness. Because of structural changes to the labor market over time, assessments about slack/tightness require a reference point called the “natural rate of unemployment.”
October 3, 2019
Garrett Golding
Higher oil prices due to supply disruptions and increased geopolitical risk are unlikely to generate significantly more U.S. oil production in the short term.
October 1, 2019
Alexander Chudik
How big an impact should we expect on gasoline prices? Based on recent research, most of the initial effect showed up quickly at the pump.
September 26, 2019
Chloe Smith, Christopher Slijk and Pia M. Orrenius
The regional economy is growing at a moderate pace, and labor markets remain tight. However, the outlook among Texas firms has deteriorated due to concern about tariffs, trade policy uncertainty and slowing global growth.
September 24, 2019
Karel Mertens, Grant Strickler and Martin Stuermer
As U.S. oil production has more than doubled over the past decade, the oil and gas sector has become more important to growth in non-residential investment.
September 17, 2019
Mark A. Wynne
Simmons and Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan discussed her decision to become an educator, her experience in academia and the importance of educational opportunity.
September 3, 2019
Keith R. Phillips and Alexander T. Abraham
Despite a strong economy and historically low unemployment rates in Texas, net domestic migration to Texas from other states has slowed since 2015.
August 27, 2019
Sean Howard, Gregor Schwerhoff and Martin Stuermer
Economic intuition suggests nonrenewable resources such as metals or fossil fuels become scarcer and more expensive over time. However, a new dataset covering the years 1700 to 2018 indicates otherwise.
August 20, 2019
Mine Yücel and Michael D. Plante
The U.S. shale boom has benefited the nation’s oil trade balance and oil-producing regions and led to unusually large employment and output gains.