Speech by President Lorie K. Logan
Welcome remarks for the Outlook for North American Trade and Immigration conference
This conversation comes at a pivotal time as governments adjust trade, immigration and other policies.
April 10, 2025
Outlook for North American Trade and Immigration
Tariffs, immigration and nearshoring are the current defining topics for the U.S.–Mexico relationship. The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and the Peterson Institute for International Economics will host a conference April 10, 2025, on the economic outlook for North America through the lens of these issues.
April 10, 2025
Texas economic outlook downbeat as uncertainty increases
The Texas economy grew slightly below trend through the first quarter of 2025. While job growth appears just off its long-term annual trend rate of about 2.1 percent, the Dallas Fed Texas Business Outlook Surveys (TBOS) point to slowing activity in both the services and manufacturing sectors.
April 03, 2025
Weighing Texas economic resilience amid tariffs, workforce challenges
Ray Perryman, principal of Waco-based The Perryman Group, has been an observer of the Texas economy for more than four decades. He offers his views of what has propelled Texas since the 1980s oil bust and the state’s future prospects, and he recounts how he grew his economics firm.
March 07, 2025
Research Department Working Papers
Trade Costs and Inflation Dynamics
This paper exploits bilateral trade flows of final and intermediate goods together with the structure of static trade models that deliver gravity equations to identify exogenous changes in trade costs between countries. The authors then use a local projections approach to assess the effects of trade cost shocks on consumer price (CPI) inflation.
March 04, 2025
Mexico, U.S. and China offer an evolving ‘triangular’ trade relationship
Enrique Dussel Peters, a professor at the Graduate School of Economics at the Universidad Nacional Autonóma de México and coordinator of the university’s Center for Chinese–Mexican Studies, discusses trade flows between the U.S., Mexico and China and their prospects.
March 03, 2025
Research Department Working Papers
An Anatomy of U.S. Establishments’ Trade Linkages in Global Value Chains
Global value chains (GVC) are a pervasive feature of modern production, but they are hard to measure. Using U.S. Census microdata, this paper develops novel measures of the linkages between U.S. manufacturing establishments’ imports and exports. The paper documents three new GVC patterns.
December 27, 2024
Research Department Working Papers
Structural Change in Sub-Saharan Africa: An Open Economy Perspective
This paper studies the evolution of manufacturing value added shares in 11 sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries through the lens of an open economy model of structural change.
December 24, 2024
Mexico nearshoring yet to yield big investment despite global trade tensions
The resulting reality surrounding nearshoring’s impact on Mexico’s economy is nuanced. While Mexico has made gains, many of them stem from trade diversion rather than large-scale foreign capital relocation.
December 05, 2024
Research Department Working Papers
What Imports to Import Prices?
This study offers new insights into exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) using U.S. import price indexes by country-of-origin, covering two decades of monthly data.
October 25, 2024