Southwest Economy, Third Quarter 2022
Big federal stimulus, home-value spike won’t ease next slump
Ultra-low interest rates and a historic housing boom that aided state and local government operations are fading, suggesting Texas policymakers may encounter additional difficulties during the next downturn.
October 03, 2022
Inflation in services likely to rise further despite slowing goods prices
Given rising demand for in-person services, the slow pass-through of surging house prices to rent and owners’ equivalent rent (OER), and higher health care worker wages, services inflation is likely to increase further.
September 06, 2022
Rent inflation expected to accelerate then moderate in mid-2023
With housing price moderation, it is important to assess the implications for rent inflation and OER inflation and, in particular, whether they may soon ease and help slow overall inflation.
August 16, 2022
Southwest Economy, Second Quarter 2022
Texas home prices rose at record pace in 2021
The buyer frenzy in Texas housing markets began in summer 2020, just months after COVID-19 shut down the economy in March and April.
July 01, 2022
Real-time market monitoring finds signs of brewing U.S. housing bubble
There is growing cause for concern that U.S. house prices are again becoming unhinged from fundamentals.
March 29, 2022
Federal Reserve Banks of Atlanta and Dallas conference explored housing, urban economics
Residential real estate prices rose sharply throughout the United States following the onset of COVID-19 in early 2020. While property owners received a capital gains windfall, first-time buyers and renters have struggled with reduced affordability.
January 25, 2022
Taking the global housing market’s temperature: Is it running a fever (again)?
The current trajectory prompts the question: Do markets face the prospect of a housing bubble once again? Alternatively, are price increases in step with housing market fundamentals?
September 28, 2021
Fed’s mortgage-backed securities purchases sought calm, accommodation during pandemic
We explore the Federal Reserve’s purchases of agency MBS—mortgage bonds guaranteed by Ginnie Mae, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac—and related market dynamics during the pandemic, including why mortgage rates fell to historic lows.
August 26, 2021
Surging house prices expected to propel rent increases, push up inflation
The inflation rates of rent and owners’ equivalent rent (OER)—the amount of rent equivalent to the cost of ownership—have declined sharply since the COVID-19 pandemic began in February 2020. However, we expect rent inflation and OER inflation to accelerate in the years to come.
August 24, 2021
Private subprime mortgages challenged FHA during 2000s housing boom
Considerable research has been devoted to better understanding the meteoric rise of the PLS subprime mortgage market in the early-to-mid 2000s. But an important aspect has been largely ignored: The simultaneous decline in mortgage originations with Federal Housing Administration (FHA) insurance.
May 11, 2021