Russia’s war on Ukraine will leave scars on U.S., world economies
The conflict may alter the global economic and geopolitical order, leading to a new era of deglobalization.
May 17, 2022
Recent inflation surges have modestly affected long-term expectations
Improvements in Federal Reserve credibility over the last 40 years have ensured that inflation expectations, particularly long-term inflation expectations, have so far remained well-anchored despite surging current inflation.
April 05, 2022
Real-time market monitoring finds signs of brewing U.S. housing bubble
There is growing cause for concern that U.S. house prices are again becoming unhinged from fundamentals.
March 29, 2022
The Russian oil supply shock of 2022
In the immediate aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in late February, early estimates suggested that perhaps 3 million barrels a day (mb/d) of petroleum production had been effectively removed from the global oil market, constituting one of the largest supply shortfalls since the 1970s.
March 22, 2022
Nominal GDP outlook suggests it’s time to end monetary accommodation
We argue that the policy response to COVID-19 has been broadly on track to date but that continued monetary accommodation (lowering interest rates or purchasing assets) risks fueling excessive inflation.
January 13, 2022
What might inflation look like next year?
In our baseline scenario, core inflation is 2.6 percent in 2022. If this occurs, core inflation will have averaged 2.4 percent over the last five years, moderately above the Fed’s 2.0 percent inflation target.
October 14, 2021
Life insurers’ preference for familiar bond issuers limits COVID-19 shock transmission
Despite regulations that encourage diversification and informational symmetry among buyers, insurance companies tend to lend to their current borrowers. This bondholder–issuer relationship moderates the effect of transitory economic shocks such as those associated with the onset of COVID-19.
October 05, 2021
Taking the global housing market’s temperature: Is it running a fever (again)?
The current trajectory prompts the question: Do markets face the prospect of a housing bubble once again? Alternatively, are price increases in step with housing market fundamentals?
September 28, 2021
Using inflation expectations to boost consumer spending poses policy risks
Communication that raises inflation expectations has been suggested as a policy tool for central banks. Our research suggests that this policy tool has some limitations that central banks must manage when implementing it.
September 07, 2021
Fed’s mortgage-backed securities purchases sought calm, accommodation during pandemic
We explore the Federal Reserve’s purchases of agency MBS—mortgage bonds guaranteed by Ginnie Mae, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac—and related market dynamics during the pandemic, including why mortgage rates fell to historic lows.
August 26, 2021