Research Department Working Papers
State-Dependent Local Projections
Do state-dependent local projections asymptotically recover the population responses of macroeconomic aggregates to structural shocks? The answer to this question depends on how the state of the economy is determined and on the magnitude of the shocks.
April 19, 2023
Interest rate volatility contributed to higher mortgage rates in 2022
The Federal Reserve aggressively tightened monetary policy in 2022, responding to high and persistent inflation. The resulting borrowing cost increase for households and firms was generally anticipated. However, fixed-rate mortgage interest rates were especially sensitive to the policy regime change.
April 04, 2023
Calibrating central bank inflation messages is key to policy success
A well-crafted message about the current and future state of the economy can influence the private sector’s expectations and guide behavior to ensure that the economy remains strong and prices stable even amid threatening supply-and-demand shocks.
March 28, 2023
Threat of global housing slide looms amid rising rates
While house-price growth has recently begun to moderate—or, in some countries, to decline—the risk of a deep global housing slide persists.
February 28, 2023
Dallas Fed, Latin American central banks explore financial stability risks
The COVID-19 pandemic, recent monetary tightening and a strengthening U.S. dollar were the themes explored during a recent conference organized by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and the Center for Latin American Monetary Studies (CEMLA) and held at CEMLA’s Mexico City headquarters.
February 16, 2023
Research Department Working Papers
Financial Technology and the Transmission of Monetary Policy: The Role of Social Networks
This paper establishes that social networks play a key role in consumers’ adoption of FinTech lending, which amplifies the effects of a monetary stimulus.
February 14, 2023
Job vacancy, unemployment relationship clouds ‘soft landing’ prospects
Some economists have argued that because the job vacancy rate has been well above its prepandemic level, there is plenty of room for vacancies to fall before the unemployment rate must rise.
February 07, 2023
Existing low-rate mortgages blunt impact of recent rate surge
The prevalence of low-rate mortgages suggests that future policy rate cuts may not as effectively stimulate household spending through refinancing as during past recessions.
December 27, 2022
Research Department Working Papers
A Broader Perspective on the Inflationary Effects of Energy Price Shocks
This paper develops a vector autoregressive model that quantifies the joint impact of shocks to several energy prices on headline and core CPI inflation.
December 21, 2022
Globalization Institute Working Paper
Commodity Exports, Financial Frictions and International Spillovers
This paper offers a solution to the international co-movement puzzle found in open-economy macroeconomic models.
December 16, 2022