Lowest-income workers see accelerated earnings growth during pandemic
In many respects, the pandemic has disproportionately harmed low-income workers. Earnings growth, triggered by labor shortages and high turnover rates, could be a rare exception.
August 08, 2022
U.S. likely didn’t slip into recession in early 2022 despite negative GDP growth
Most indicators—particularly those measuring labor markets—provide strong evidence that the U.S. economy did not fall into a recession in the first quarter.
August 02, 2022
Research Department Working Papers
Heterogeneity and the Effects of Aggregation on Wage Growth
This paper focuses on the implications of alternative methods of aggregating individual wage data for the behavior of economy-wide wage growth.
August 01, 2022
Initial unemployment claims appear stable over past several months
It is likely that the latest rise in initial claims reflects difficulty adjusting the data for seasonal patterns in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, rather than a deterioration in underlying economic conditions.
June 28, 2022
Texas Employment Forecast
The Texas Employment Forecast estimates that jobs will increase 4.2 percent in 2022, with an 80 percent confidence band of 3.7 to 4.8 percent.
June 16, 2022
Southwest Economy, First Quarter 2022
Texas reclaims jobs lost in pandemic; some metros still trying to catch up
The recovery from the pandemic recession ushered in a massive reallocation of employment between industries with repercussions for different areas of the state.
April 01, 2022
Real Wages Grew During Two Years of COVID-19 After Controlling for Workforce Composition
Despite recent negative real wage growth, workers have experienced real wage gains over the two years of the pandemic.
February 15, 2022
Southwest Economy, Fourth Quarter 2021
Largest Texas metros lure big-city, coastal migrants during pandemic
High-frequency data show that migration to Texas has accelerated during the pandemic. The emergence of working from home has lessened both workers’ and some companies’ reliance on physical offices, clearing the way for the new wave of mobility.
December 15, 2021
Southwest Economy, Fourth Quarter 2021
Texas joblessness persists above U.S. rate, weighing on black, Hispanic workers
While the gender unemployment gap has largely dissipated in Texas, the gaps between white workers and both Black and Hispanic workers have persisted above pre-COVID-19 levels.
December 15, 2021
Texas birth-rate decline complicates economic growth prospects
Lower birth rates are associated with less growth and a more rapidly aging population and, hence, slower economic expansion.
October 12, 2021