Emerging-market countries insulate themselves from Fed rate hikes
Earlier episodes of sizable Fed tightening preceded destabilizing currency devaluations in emerging markets, precipitating sovereign debt and banking crises in many of those economies.
August 08, 2023
Wage growth still exceeds 3 percent despite slowing in business survey measures
Fed policymakers working to reduce inflation have closely monitored how fast wages have risen. National estimates put recent 12-month wage inflation at around 4–5 percent, though these measures can lag other indicators of labor market conditions. More timely wage data can be found from the five regional Federal Reserve Banks that run business surveys.
August 01, 2023
Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate
Behind the numbers: PCE inflation update, June 2023
The headline, or all-items, PCE price index rose an annualized 2.0 percent in June after increasing an annualized 1.5 percent in May.
July 28, 2023
Research Department Working Papers
Financial Shocks in an Uncertain Economy
This paper focuses on some of the lessons we have learned over the years: (i) uncertainty and tail risk have cyclical variation; (ii) financial shocks can have a significant effect on macroeconomic outcomes; (iii) the impact of shocks is stronger in periods of high volatility.
July 07, 2023
Gazing at r-star: Gauging U.S. monetary policy via the natural rate of interest
While estimating r-star is fraught with difficulty, the latest evidence suggests U.S. monetary policy likely turned restrictive at the start of 2023, after the Federal Reserve started raising rates in March 2022.
July 03, 2023
Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate
Behind the numbers: PCE inflation update, May 2023
The headline, or all-items, PCE price index rose an annualized 4.5 percent in April after increasing an annualized 1.2 percent in March.
June 30, 2023
Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate
Behind the numbers: PCE inflation update, April 2023
The headline, or all-items, PCE price index rose an annualized 4.5 percent in April after increasing an annualized 1.2 percent in March.
May 26, 2023
Research Department Working Papers
Money Matters: Broad Divisia Money and the Recovery of Nominal GDP from the COVID-19 Recession
The rise of inflation in 2021 and 2022 surprised many macroeconomists who ignored the earlier surge in money growth because past instability in the demand for simple-sum monetary aggregates had made these aggregates unreliable indicators. This paper finds that the demand for more theoretically-based Divisia aggregates can be modeled and that their growth rates provide useful information for future nominal GDP growth.
May 25, 2023
Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate
Behind the numbers: PCE inflation update, March 2023
The headline, or all-items, PCE price index rose an annualized0.9 percent in March after increasing an annualized 3.7 percent in February.
May 05, 2023
Texas’ cheap housing edge slipping away as resilient demand outpaces supply
Housing affordability has declined in Texas, a top destination for domestic and international migrants drawn by its historically low cost of living.
April 21, 2023