Special Questions

Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey

Data were collected January 14–22, and 81 Texas manufacturers responded to the survey.

NOTE: 80 responses.

NOTES: 34 responses. This question was only posed to firms currently trying to hire workers.

NOTE: 81 responses.

NOTE: 81 responses.

NOTE: 80 responses.

NOTE: 80 responses.

NOTES: 10 responses. This question was only posed to firms who answered net positive impact to question 5.

NOTES: 17 responses. This question was only posed to firms who answered net negative impact to question 5.

Survey respondents were given the opportunity to also provide comments, which can be found in the Comments tab above.

Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey

Data were collected January 14–22, and 252 Texas business executives responded to the survey.

NOTE: 247 responses.

NOTES: 120 responses. This question was only posed to firms currently trying to hire workers.

NOTE: 241 responses.

NOTE: 246 responses.

NOTE: 243 responses.

NOTE: 244 responses.

NOTES: 40 responses. This question was only posed to firms who answered net positive impact to question 5.

NOTES: 60 responses. This question was only posed to firms who answered net negative impact to question 5.

Survey respondents were given the opportunity to also provide comments, which can be found in the Comments tab above.

Texas Retail Outlook Survey

Data were collected January 14–22, and 44 Texas retailers responded to the survey.

NOTE: 43 responses.

NOTES: 21 responses. This question was only posed to firms currently trying to hire workers.

NOTE: 42 responses.

NOTE: 43 responses.

NOTE: 42 responses.

NOTE: 42 responses.

NOTES: 6 responses. This question was only posed to firms who answered net positive impact to question 5.

NOTES: 9 responses. This question was only posed to firms who answered net negative impact to question 5.

Survey respondents were given the opportunity to also provide comments, which can be found in the Comments tab above.

Special Questions Comments

These comments have been edited for publication.

• We import raw materials, mostly metals such as copper, brass, carbon steel and stainless steel. We expect to see increased prices on these materials if tariffs do take effect. We also export about 20 percent of our production, so retaliatory tariffs could have an effect. We see all of this as secondary in importance to the expected strength in the U.S. economy, as this is still our major market.

• We need the [interest] rate to go down.

• More positive energy policy for oil and gas production and export of LNG [liquefied natural gas] is spurring growth. 

• We believe the general public is getting used to the idea that long-term rates will not drop significantly in the near future. That is freeing people up to buy houses and land now instead of waiting for the better rate.

• Commercial banks have seen a definite increase in economic activity primarily driven by the Fed lowering short-term rates and the positive outlook brought about by the presidential change in the White House.

• We have seen optimism in our clientele since Trump was elected. We are still waiting to see if his administration makes the changes everyone is expecting. If he is able to reduce business regulations like he says, there could be a real boom of new work. That is what we are hoping for.
• The rising credit line limit is a big hindrance for us. Our bank won't increase our borrowing max limit even though we have done business with them for 15 years with a flawless record (never late on any payments). We plan to grow faster this year and hire more workers as the business climate is getting better worldwide. But capital availability is our big challenge and limits our growth.
• Our current view is that it will take 60 to 90 days with the new administration and the full fourth quarter economic reports to determine what impact new policies will have on markets and broad financial conditions.

• Many real estate investors got complacent with low interest rates and are now paying a heavy price. Until this cycles through, things remain tough in our industry.
• Long-term yields are up over 100 basis points since September.
• The interest rate keeps fluctuating with real estate.

• We hope the combination of the changes will ultimately positively impact the economy. Hopefully, we can avoid a larger geopolitical event.
• We are in the residential mortgage lending industry─since 1984. Until recently, money has essentially been free. This entire generation of mortgage bankers (and real estate agents, etc.) have zero experience managing in a high-interest-rate environment.
• We are beginning to see a positive effect from the repricing of commercial real estate assets resulting from the increasing cost of debt capital. Several factors contribute to this including the increasing reluctance of lenders, who have maturity defaults in their commercial mortgage loan portfolio, to continue to extend maturities, pretending they have many buyers and sellers.

• While the Fed's rate cuts were helpful, they were not sufficient to positively impact our business.

• A weaker peso helps my business.

• It is still difficult to find viable financing options from traditional banks. Non-bank lenders have assisted my company, charging interest rates as high as 74 percent .

• Inflation is a problem.

• The cost of doing business continues to rise and margins are shrinking. We expect a double-digit decline in profitability in 2024 versus 2023 despite revenue increasing.

• We use a line of credit for working capital (inventory). The interest rate is pegged to prime, so our cost of capital has gone down significantly in the last six months. We also renewed the line in January 2025 without any concerns or changes from the previous terms and conditions. To put it another way, the bank did not see a need to make any modifications to our line of credit renewal, nor did their renewal process seem overly analyzed.