Special Questions

Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey

Data were collected December 16–24, and 83 Texas manufacturers responded to the survey.

NOTES: 76 responses. Shown are averages, calculated as trimmed means with the lowest and highest 5 percent of responses omitted.

NOTES: 80 responses. "Domestic policy uncertainty" was added in December 2023.

NOTE: 80 responses.

NOTE: 79 responses.

Survey respondents were given the opportunity to also provide comments, which can be found in the Comments tab above.

Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey

Data were collected December 16–24, and 264 Texas business executives responded to the survey.

NOTES: 226 responses. Shown are averages, calculated as trimmed means with the lowest and highest 5 percent of responses omitted.

NOTES: 252 responses. "Domestic policy uncertainty" was added in December 2023.

NOTE: 250 responses.

NOTE: 251 responses.

Survey respondents were given the opportunity to also provide comments, which can be found in the Comments tab above.

Texas Retail Outlook Survey

Data were collected December 16–24, and 50 Texas retailers responded to the survey.

NOTES: 41 responses. Shown are averages, calculated as trimmed means with the lowest and highest 5 percent of responses omitted.

NOTES: 47 responses. "Domestic policy uncertainty" was added in December 2023.

NOTE: 47 responses.

NOTE: 47 responses.

Survey respondents were given the opportunity to also provide comments, which can be found in the Comments tab above.

Special Questions Comments

These comments have been edited for publication.

• We are a domestic supplier building our customers’ electronics designs, but our supply chain must involve Asia because there are so many components that are only made there. Widespread tariffs will increase our input costs, and we will have to pass this along to customers. Our customers will be less competitive in world markets, and we will likely lose business as a result. We might be able to retain production for products that stay in the U.S., but we will lose (and have already lost) manufacturing for products that are for consumption in other countries.

• Since our foreign competition will be subject to higher tariffs, this is a plus for us. We would now have a price advantage considering logistics costs, tariffs and logistics risks. If we don't have to compete with governmental support for the unemployed, we can train people and make them productive.

• Our company has been contacted by several potential new customers over the past month looking for us to be a supplier due to their fear of new tariff costs placed on their current supply-chain partners in Mexico. We have not experienced this sort of inquiry in the past.

• Tariffs are a terrible idea and hopefully will not be implemented.
• Our primary concern relates to supply interruption and labor availability and cost. Labor now is significantly better than during the COVID period. However, it wouldn't take much to drive costs up and availability down.

• Increased tariffs for raw materials jeopardize this company because the same countries that we import raw materials from will sell finished products into this country via another route, such as Canada or Mexico.

• Tariffs are a hidden tax on consumers and drive inflation.
• It is hard to implement a new policy due to the fact that a majority of the items are made or shipped from overseas.

• The proposed immigration and trade policies will negatively affect the U.S. economy. We hope cooler heads prevail.
• Immigration policy, particularly H1B visa uncertainty, is going to impact us and all our Fortune 1000 customers.
• Driven by a labor shortage and with remote capability, more professional firms are exploring hiring out-of-country workers. Domestically, return-to-office is a good thing in terms of mentoring and training younger workers.
• We like the president-elect’s proposed trade policy. As a U.S.-based software product supplier for which the U.S. is the world's best, tariffs will have little effect on the demand and pricing side for us.
• We think large firms get freebies while small firms get nothing.
• We think inflation will increase if proposed trade policies get enacted. Unfortunately, there is a misunderstanding among the American people who think the countries that are exporting goods to the U.S. will pay the tariff (dream on) and that the U.S. government will be collecting all this money from foreign countries, which will reduce the deficit.

• Labor costs for hourly workers have increased for four years now and have still not kept up with inflation. We anticipate wage pressure to continue. We have been able to pass those costs on but not so much anymore.
• People have to understand that tariffs will increase costs for American consumers. We fear many people think that foreign countries and companies pay the tariff, but they don't.

• We are concerned about profit margins due to higher costs from tariffs but an inability to raise prices due to slack demand from a possible tariff-induced recession.

• For the most part we are very optimistic about the future, but we don’t want to move forward with some projects until we have more certainty.

• We were overstaffed in entry-level, unskilled positions, but we cut staff and hours by about 10 percent. We are understaffed in semi-skilled positions that require licensees to cut hair (barber and cosmetologist). These positions have a direct input in producing revenue. These job openings have been hard to fill due to the lack of qualified applicants.

• As a service organization, we are not impacted by trade policy directly, but our clients are manufacturing firms, and the negative impacts of potential tariffs coupled with possible shrinking of the labor force due to immigration policy can severely disrupt the manufacturing, agriculture and construction industries.

• Our economy seems fragile, but we are optimistic about the change in government in January.

• As far as the tariffs, they haven't happened yet. We will handle the situation as it arises. 
• We have zero control over tariff amount or choices. The market will go to the lowest cost available to the consumer. Who knows what will happen with that.

• Skilled positions are the hardest to fill. As long as inventory is close to demand then businesses like ours can manage appropriately. When inventories significantly exceed demand our industry suffers. That’s our major concern.

• Higher tariffs could trigger our customers to import from other countries (not the United States). We see this situation when there is a strong dollar. U.S.-produced goods (agriculture-based products) become too expensive for our Latin America markets, and they seek sources of supply from neighboring countries or Europe. The trade-off for them is twofold. Sometimes the supply is spotty, and they can't get reliable sources, or the product quality is inferior to U.S. goods.