Economists

John V. Duca

Economist Emeritus
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

John Duca conducts research in macroeconomics and finance for the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. He has been with the Bank since 1991.

He has given numerous briefings on the economy to the Bank’s president and board of directors. Duca has published more than 75 articles on money, credit, wages and housing in scholarly journals and Bank publications. Much of this research analyzes how innovations have altered economic relationships relevant to the macroeconomy and monetary policy.

From 1986 to 1991, Duca was a staff economist at the Federal Reserve Board, where he briefed former chairmen Alan Greenspan and Paul Volcker and other Fed policymakers. Additionally, he was a part-time lecturer at the University of Maryland. He is currently a professor at Oberlin College. He is also a vice president of the International Banking, Economics, and Finance Association.

He holds a BA from Yale University and a PhD in economics from Princeton University.

Curriculum Vitae

Education

PhD (Economics), Princeton University, 1986.
BA (Economics), Yale University, 1982, Summa Cum Laude, Phi Beta Kappa.
Areas of Research: Macroeconomics, Money, Finance, Credit, and Housing.
Graduate School Fields: Macro/Money, International, and Development.

Employment

Vice President and Associate Director of Research (9/2013–present); Vice President and Senior Policy Advisor (9/2007–9/2013) Vice President and Senior Economist (1/2000–9/2007), Senior Economist and Assistant Vice President (1/97–12/99), Research Officer (1/94–12/96), Senior Economist and Policy Advisor (6/91–12/93), Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
Research macroeconomics, finance, money, credit, labor markets, housing, and banking. Lead the macroeconomics group; head the financial-side macroeconomic research group; supervise two PhD economists, and co-edit the Dallas Fed's Working Paper series. Major policy work: 24 FOMC briefings and 18 Board of Directors' presentations on the U.S. economy and financial markets.
Staff Economist, Division of Monetary Affairs, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, September 1986–May 1991.
Research and analyze topics in macroeconomics, money, credit, real estate, and banking. Policy work focused on banking, business and consumer credit, and real estate. Major policy contributions: 13 Federal Reserve Board briefings, six FOMC green book sections on money & banking, overall financial editor of the FOMC green book twice, co-author February 1988 Humphrey–Hawkins Report, two Federal Reserve Bulletin articles on bank profits, and many memoranda. Special briefings: credit standards, loan pricing, loan securitization, loan quality, financial markets, and bank profits. Acting Chief of the Banking and Money Market Analysis Section when my supervisor was out.
Adjunct Lecturer, Southern Methodist University, Spring 2005–present, money and banking.
Visiting Academic, Oxford University, June 2007, September 2007, November 2008
Visiting Scholar, European University Institute, Spring 2005.
Lecturer, U. Maryland Business School, 1990, taught intermediate macro to MBAs.

Dissertation

"Credit Rationing and Trade Credit as an Alternative Source of Short-Term Credit," October 1986.

Publications in Refereed Journals

“How Mortgage Finance Reform Could Affect Housing,” American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, with John Muellbauer and Anthony Murphy, forthcoming.
“Income Inequality, Media Fragmentation and Increased Political Polarization," with Jason Saving, Contemporary Economic Policy, forthcoming,
“How Capital Regulation and Other Factors Drive the Role of Shadow Banking in Funding Short-Term Business Credit,” Journal of Banking and Finance, forthcoming.
“The Increasingly Media Fragmented and Opinionated American Public,” Social Science Quarterly, with Jason Saving (forthcoming).
“Income Inequality and Political Polarization: Time Series Evidence Over Nine Decades,” with Jason Saving, Review of Income and Wealth, forthcoming.
“A Conference on Housing, Stability, and the Macroeconomy: International Perspectives,”with R. Arezki, T. Beck, R. DeYoung, P. Lougani, and A. Murphy, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, March/April 2015.
“Financial Literacy and Mortgage Equity Withdrawals,” with Anil Kumar, Journal of Urban Economics, March 2014.
“Did the Fed's Commercial Paper Funding Facility Help Prevent a Great Depression Style Money Market Meltdown?” Journal of Financial Stability, December 2015.
“The Money Market Meltdown of the Great Depression,” Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, March/April 2013.
“Credit, Housing Collateral and Consumption: Evidence from Japan, the UK and the U.S.” with Janine Aron, John Muellbauer, Keiko Murata, and Anthony Murphy, The Review of Income and Wealth, September 2012.
“House Prices and Credit Constraints: Making Sense of the U.S. Experience,” with John Muellbauer and Anthony Murphy, The Economic Journal, May 2011.
"Housing Markets and the Financial Crisis of 2007-09: Lessons for the Future," with John Muellbauer and Anthony Murphy, Journal of Financial Stability, December 2010.
“Regulation and the Neo-Wicksellian Approach to Monetary Policy,” Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, with Tao Wu, June 2009.
"Stock Ownership and Congressional Elections: The Political Economy of the Mutual Fund Revolution," with Jason Saving, Economic Inquiry, July 2008.
“Mutual Funds and the Evolving Impact of Stock Wealth on U.S. Consumption,” The Journal of Economics and Business, May/June 2006.
"Why Have Households Increasingly Relied on Mutual Funds to Own Equity?" The Review of Income and Wealth, September 2005.
"Recent Developments in Understanding the Demand for Money," with David VanHoose, Journal of Economics and Business, March/April 2004.
"The Rise of Goods Market Competition and the Fall of Nominal Wage Contracting," with David VanHoose, Journal of Macroeconomics, Winter 2001.
"Financial Technology Shocks and the Case of the Missing M2," Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, November 2000.
"Has Greater Competition Restrained U.S. Inflation?" with David VanHoose, Southern Economic Journal, January 2000.
"Goods Market Competition and Profit Sharing," with David VanHoose, Journal of Economics and Business, November/December 1998.
"The Rise of Goods Market Competition and the Decline in Wage Indexation: A Macroeconomic Approach," with David VanHoose, Journal of Macroeconomics, Summer 1998.
"Assessing Monetary Policy and Deposit Deregulation," Journal of Economics and Business, January/February 1998.
"Deposit Deregulation and the Sensitivity of Housing," Journal of Housing Economics 5, 1996.
"Inflation, Unemployment, and Duration," Economics Letters, September 1996.
"Credit Cards and Money Demand," Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, with William Whitesell, May 1995.
"Should Bond Funds Be Included in M2?" Journal of Banking and Finance, May 1995.
"Adding Bond Funds to M2 in the P-Star Model of Inflation," with Zsolt Becsi, Economics Letters, October 1994.
"Borrowing Constraints and Access to Owner-Occupied Housing," with Stuart Rosenthal, Regional Science and Urban Economics, June 1994.
"Do Mortgage Rates Vary Based on Household Default Characteristics? Evidence on Credit Risk Sorting and Credit Rationing," with Stuart Rosenthal, Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, March 1994.
"Borrowing Constraints, Household Debt, and Racial Discrimination in Loan Markets," with Stuart Rosenthal, Journal of Financial Intermediation, October 1993.
"RTC Activity and the 'Missing M2,'" Economics Letters, 41(1), 1993.
"U.S. Business Credit Sources, Demand Deposits, and the 'Missing Money,'" Journal of Banking and Finance, July 1992.
"Optimal Wage Indexation in a Multisector Economy," with David VanHoose, International Economic Review, November 1991.
"Credit Rationing and the Demand for Owner-Occupied Housing," with Stuart Gabriel and Stuart Rosenthal, Journal of Urban Economics, July 1991.
"An Empirical Test of Credit Rationing in the Mortgage Market," with Stuart Rosenthal, Journal of Urban Economics, March 1991.
"Optimal Monetary Policy in a Multisector Economy with an Economy-wide Money Market," with David VanHoose, Journal of Economics and Business, November 1990.
"Loan Commitments and Optimal Monetary Policy," with David VanHoose, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, May 1990.
"The Impact of Mortgage Activity on Recent Demand Deposit Growth," Economics Letters, February 1990.
"The Spillover Effects of Nominal Wage Rigidity in a Multisector Economy," Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, May 1987.

Published Comments on Articles in Professional Journals

Comments on, "The Importance of Relationships to the Availability of Credit," by Rebel A. Cole, Journal of Banking and Finance 22, August 1998, special issue on the economics of small business finance.
Comments on "Performance of Residential Mortgages in Low and Moderate Income Neighborhoods," by Edwin S. Mills and Luan' Sende Lubuele, Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, special issue on information and screening in real estate finance, November 1994.

Book Publications

Science and Cents: Exploring the Economics of Biotechnology, a conference volume edited by John V. Duca and Mine K. Yücel, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, 2003.
"An Overview of Science and Cents: Exploring the Economics of Biotechnology,” with Mine Yücel, in Science and Cents: Exploring the Economics of Biotechnology, edited by John V. Duca and Mine K. Yücel, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, 2003.

Federal Reserve System Publications

“When Will the U.S. Housing Market Stabilize?” with David Luttrell and Anthony Murphy, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Economic Letter, August 2011.
“Recovering from the Housing and Financial Crisis,” with David Luttrell, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Economic Letter, July 2010.
“Fed Confronts Financial Crisis by Expanding Its Role as Lender of Last Resort,” with Danielle DiMartino and Jessica Renier, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Economic Letter, February/March 2009. Recommended for further reading by the Journal of Economic Perspectives, vol. 23 (3), Summer, 2009
“From Complacency to Crisis: The Rise and Fall of Risk-Taking in the 21st Century,” with Danielle DiMartino and Harvey Rosenblum, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Economic Letter, December 2007.
“The Rise and Fall of Subprime Mortgages,” with Danielle DiMartino, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Economic Letter, November 2007. Recommended for further reading by the Journal of Economic Perspectives, vol. 22(2), Spring 2008.
"Making Sense of the U.S. Housing Slowdown," Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Economic Letter, November 2006
“Making Sense of Elevated Housing Prices,” Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Southwest Economy, October/November 2005.
"Productivity Gains Showing Up in Services," with W. Michael Cox and Richard Alm, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Southwest Economy, November/December 2004.
“How Vulnerable are Housing Prices,” Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Southwest Economy, March/April 2004.
“How Low Interest Rates Affect Financial Institutions,” Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Southwest Economy, November/December 2003.
"An Overview of Science and Cents: Exploring the Economics of Biotechnology,” with Mine Yücel, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Economic and Financial Policy Review, Vol. 1, Issue 3, 2002.
"The Economic Impact of Biotechnology,” with John Thompson and Mine Yücel, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Southwest Economy, March/April 2002.
"How Does the Stock Market Affect the Economy," Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Southwest Economy, September/October 2001.
"The Rise of Stock Mutual Funds," Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Southwest Economy, January/February 2001.
"The Democratization of America's Capital Markets: How Small Firms and Investors Gained Greater Access to U.S. Financial Markets,"Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Economic and Financial Review, Second Quarter 2001.
"An Overview of What Credit Market Indicators Tell Us," Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Economic and Financial Review, Third Quarter 1999.
"A Fresh Look at the National Economy," with Evan Koenig, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Southwest Economy, March/April 1999.
"How Increased Product Market Competition May Be Reshaping America's Labor Markets," Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Economic Review, Fourth Quarter 1998.
"The New Labor Paradigm," Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Southwest Economy, May/June 1998.
"What Does the Asian Crisis Mean For the U.S. Economy?" with David Gould and Lori Taylor, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Southwest Economy, March/April 1998.
"Has Long-Run Profitability Risen in the 1990s?" Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Economic Review, Fourth Quarter 1997.
"A Tale of Three Supply Shocks, National Inflation, and the Region's Economy," Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Southwest Economy, Issue 2, 1997.
"Sources of Money Instability," Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Economic Review, Fourth Quarter 1995.
"The Changing Meaning of Money," Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Southwest Economy, Issue 6, 1995.
"Would the Addition of Bond or Equity Funds Make M2 a Better Indicator of Nominal GDP?" Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Economic Review, Fourth Quarter 1994.
"Monitoring Money: Should Bond Funds Be Added to M2?" Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Southwest Economy, Special Issue/June 1993.
"Mutual Funds and Monetary Policy," Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Review, November/December 1994.
"Regulation, Bank Competitiveness, and Episodes of Missing Money," Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Economic Review, Second Quarter, 1993.
"The Case of the 'Missing M2,'" Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Economic Review, Second Quarter 1992.
"Developments Affecting the Profitability and Practices of Commercial Banks in 1990," with Allan Brunner and Mary McLaughlin, Federal Reserve Bulletin, July 1991.
"Developments Affecting the Profitability of Commercial Banks in 1989," with Mary McLaughlin, Federal Reserve Bulletin, July 1990.

Papers under Revision for Resubmission to Refereed Journals or under Initial Review

“The Other (Commercial) Real Estate Boom and Bust: The Effects of Risk Premia and Regulatory Capital Arbitrage,” with David Ling.

Work in Progress

“Economic Policy Uncertainty and the Credit Channel: Aggregate and Bank Level U.S. Evidence over Several Decades,” with Michael Bordo and Chris Koch.
“Money and Velocity During Financial Crises: From the Great Depression to the Great Recession,” with Richard Anderson and Michael Bordo, December 2015.
“Why Has the U.S. Stockownership Doubled Since the 1980s? The Evolution of Equity Participation Over a Half Century,” August 2013.“Shifting Credit Standards and the Boom and Bust in U.S. House Prices: Time Series Evidence from the Past Three Decades,” with John Muellbauer and Anthony Murphy, July 2013.
“How Financial Innovations and Accelerators Drive U.S. Consumption Booms and Busts,” with John Muellbauer and Anthony Murphy.
“New Evidence on First-Time Downpayment Ratios and the Evolution of U.S. House Prices,” with Kurt Johnson, John Muellbauer, and Anthony Murphy.