A comprehensive list of recently added postings on Dallasfed.org.
Asset Manager Commonality and Portfolio Similarity
Asset managers are increasingly influential in financial markets. This paper uses new regulatory as well as manually collected data on asset managers of life insurers, the largest institutional investors of corporate bonds, and finds that insurers with the same asset managers have more similar portfolios and trades.
April 25, 2025
Tax Progressivity, Economic Booms and Trickle-Up Economics
This paper proposes a method to decompose changes in the tax structure into orthogonal components measuring the level and progressivity of taxes.
April 24, 2025
Weekly Economic Index
The WEI is currently 2.68 percent, scaled to four-quarter GDP growth, for the week ended April 19 and 2.56 percent for April 12.
April 24, 2025
Revisiting the Interest Rate Effects of Federal Debt
This paper revisits the relationship between federal debt and interest rates. A common approach in the literature is to regress an expected interest rate on a projection of federal debt. This paper shows that issues related to nonstationarity have become more pronounced over the last 20 years, raising significant concern about the reliability of estimates from this model. The authors argue that estimating the model in first differences rather than in levels addresses these concerns.
April 23, 2025
Eleventh District Beige Book
Growth in the Eleventh District economy slowed to a slight pace. Nonfinancial services activity stalled. Retail sales dipped while manufacturing and oil field activity rose modestly. Lending growth moderated. Commercial real estate activity was steady, while housing demand remained tepid. Employment increased, and input cost pressures accelerated. Outlooks deteriorated as heightened uncertainty surrounding domestic and trade policy hindered firms' ability to plan.
April 23, 2025
Mexico’s economy continues to decelerate amid worsening economic outlook
The consensus forecast for 2025 real GDP growth (fourth quarter, year over year) compiled by Banco de México fell to 0.5 percent in March. The latest data available indicated a slowing economy.
April 23, 2025
Global Macro-Financial Cycles and Spillovers
This paper develops a new dynamic factor model to jointly characterize global macroeconomic and financial cycles and the spillovers between them.
April 22, 2025
Job cyclicality provides timely signals on Texas, U.S. business cycle
The cyclicality of industries and their behavior provide early indications of economic turning points in Texas and the U.S. and provide a timelier view than other data that are widely used to confirm downturns and expansions.
April 22, 2025
Energy Indicators
U.S. oil and natural gas rig counts declined in the first quarter of 2025 compared with the first quarter of 2024. U.S. days of supply of crude, gasoline and distillate were above the five-year average. U.S. retail fuel prices were down in March along with Brent crude oil. The U.S. producer price index (PPI) for electricity increased.
April 21, 2025
Texas Employment Forecast
The Texas Employment Forecast indicates jobs will increase 1.5 percent in 2025, with an 80 percent confidence band of 0.8 to 2.2 percent.
April 18, 2025