A comprehensive list of recently added postings on Dallasfed.org.
Texas Employment Forecast
The Texas Employment Forecast estimates jobs will increase 1.9 percent in 2024, with an 80 percent confidence band of 1.4 to 2.4 percent.
August 16, 2024
Texas community banks grapple with national stresses as elevated rates pose new tests
Despite community banks’ relative strength in Texas, the outlook through year-end 2024 comes with evolving downside risks, particularly involving unrealized losses on fixed-income holdings.
August 14, 2024
Mexico’s economy softens in the second quarter
Mexico’s economic activity slowed in the second quarter of 2024, missing market expectations. GDP slowed to an annualized 0.8 percent growth from 1.1 percent the previous quarter due to a loss of momentum in services and an extended contraction in the agricultural sector.
August 14, 2024
How the U.S. might outgrow pandemic-era housing (un)affordability problems
A review of market-based and private forecasters’ expectations suggests that U.S. housing may be at an inflection point. U.S. income growth and, more broadly, the robust U.S. labor market will likely help wring out pandemic-era excesses that led to rapidly deteriorating affordability.
August 13, 2024
Houston Economic Indicators
Houston’s labor market grew on trend in second quarter 2024 despite soft June data, and the unemployment rate ticked up. Initial unemployment insurance claims spiked following Hurricane Beryl.
August 12, 2024
How valuable is a short-term credential for a job seeker? It’s complicated
Employer demand for short-term credentials is rising. But the likelihood of such credentials leading to higher wage offers depends on the industry and can change over time.
August 9, 2024
Texas expansion moderates; labor market, price expectations normalize
The housing market slowed, with sales down and inventories rising. Data reflecting strain among small businesses and low- and moderate-income households appeared mixed. Some data point to rising stress, while others suggest resilience.
August 8, 2024
Dallas-Fort Worth Economic Indicators
The Dallas–Fort Worth economy slowed in June as employment fell and unemployment rose. Despite the slowing, second-quarter job gains outpaced the first quarter.
August 6, 2024
Trade liberalization reduces entrepreneurship rate
Our research suggests that if the world becomes increasingly interconnected through international trade, entrepreneurship rates will decrease over time.
August 6, 2024
Deindustrialization and Industry Polarization
This paper adds to recent evidence on deindustrialization and documents a new pattern: increasing industry polarization over time.
August 5, 2024