Location, location, location: Mortgage rate impact varies by metro
The role of individual housing markets and their sensitivity to mortgage rate changes play an important part in understanding the impact of higher rates.
August 15, 2023
Research Department Working Papers
Financial Shocks in an Uncertain Economy
This paper focuses on some of the lessons we have learned over the years: (i) uncertainty and tail risk have cyclical variation; (ii) financial shocks can have a significant effect on macroeconomic outcomes; (iii) the impact of shocks is stronger in periods of high volatility.
July 07, 2023
Gazing at r-star: Gauging U.S. monetary policy via the natural rate of interest
While estimating r-star is fraught with difficulty, the latest evidence suggests U.S. monetary policy likely turned restrictive at the start of 2023, after the Federal Reserve started raising rates in March 2022.
July 03, 2023
Treasuries’ allure as safe haven noted in short maturities, not in long bonds
The United States has a large negative net-foreign-asset position, especially in safe assets. In times of crisis, U.S. government debt, especially short-term Treasuries, are viewed as a safe haven. As a result, the U.S. is a net debtor. It is more leveraged and tends to hold more risky assets (mostly equities) and finance those positions by selling safe-asset debt to the rest of the world.
June 27, 2023
Surveys
Banking Conditions Survey
Loan demand declined for the seventh period in a row, and most bankers expect a further deterioration over the next six months.
June 26, 2023
Globalization Institute Working Paper
On the Nexus of Monetary Policy and Financial Stability: Novel Asset Market Monitoring Tools for Building Economic Resilience and Mitigating Financial Risks
This paper argues that asset pricing bubbles are an important source of financial instabilities.
June 02, 2023
District banks meet challenging times from position of strength
Texas banks confront an increasingly challenging operating environment, as the state’s usually strong economic growth is predicted to slow later this year and the Federal Reserve’s rapidly rising interest rate environment pressures some institutions’ profitability.
June 01, 2023
The connection between banking and sovereign debt crises
Dallas Fed economist Sewon Hur examines how sovereign debt crises can amplify banking problems.
May 30, 2023
Surveys
Banking Conditions Survey
Loan demand declined for the sixth period in a row amid further loan pricing increases and worsening general business activity.
May 15, 2023
Research Department Working Papers
Debt Maturity and Commitment on Firm Policies
If firms can issue debt only at discrete dates, debt maturity is an effective device against the commitment problem on debt and investment policies. With shorter maturities, debt dynamics are less persistent and more valuable because upward leverage adjustments are faster and long-run leverage lower.
April 19, 2023