A comprehensive list of recently added postings on Dallasfed.org.
The Zero Lower Bound and Estimation Accuracy
During the Great Recession, many central banks lowered their policy rate to its zero lower bound, creating a kink in the policy rule and calling into question linear estimation methods.
February 19, 2019
Changes in labor force participation help explain recent job gains
The U.S. labor force participation rate declined following the Great Recession to a low of 62.3 percent in 2015.
February 19, 2019
Dallas Fed Energy Survey suggests oil price drop won’t cause sector collapse in 2019
Following a banner year in 2018, will U.S. oil producers retrench and reduce capital spending after the recent double-digit oil price decline? The latest Dallas Fed Energy Survey provides some clues about what may be next.
February 14, 2019
Closer to One Great Pool? Evidence from Structural Breaks in Oil Price Differentials
We show that the oil market has become closer to “one great pool,” in the sense that price differentials between crude oils of different qualities have generally become smaller over time.
February 13, 2019
Inverted yield curve (nearly always) signals tight monetary policy, rising unemployment
With long-term interest rates falling and short-term rates rising, there has been increasing talk of a possible yield-curve inversion and speculation about what an inversion might mean for the U.S. economy.
February 12, 2019
Austin Economic Indicators
The Austin economy expanded at a healthy pace in December. The Austin Business-Cycle Index accelerated and remained above its long-term trend.
February 7, 2019
Global Perspectives: Maya MacGuineas on stabilizing the federal debt
A good measure of a nation’s ability to repay its obligations is the ratio of the stock of indebtedness to the flow of output produced in a given year. In recent years, this ratio has increased for the U.S. government, raising new questions about how the nation manages a debt burden that is approaching an all-time high.
February 7, 2019
The value of patience
In his latest essay, posted on Dallas Fed Economics, President Rob Kaplan provides his assessment of current economic conditions and implications for monetary policy.
February 5, 2019
Welcome to Dallas Fed Economics
We welcome you to our new endeavor--Dallas Fed Economics. We are starting it to expand our engagement with the public on important economic issues. Dallas Fed Economics will feature posts on a wide range of topics of policy interest.
February 4, 2019
Trimmed Mean PCE inflation rate delayed
The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas’ Trimmed Mean PCE inflation rate, scheduled for release January 31, will be delayed due to the recent partial federal government shutdown.
January 30, 2019