A comprehensive list of recently added postings on Dallasfed.org.
Texas Employment Forecast
The Texas Employment Forecast estimates jobs will increase 2.5 percent in 2024, with an 80 percent confidence band of 2.3 to 2.7 percent.
October 18, 2024
What Fuels the Volatility of Electricity Prices?
This paper uses emergency outages of coal generators as an exogenous source of variation in the power generation stack to study how changes in marginal fuel affect real-time prices. Contrary to anecdotal evidence, the authors find that wholesale prices are less volatile when natural gas is on the margin more often.
October 15, 2024
Foundational considerations in a changing economy
President Lorie K. Logan offers her views on the evolving economy and how she is continuing to apply foundational considerations to thinking about monetary policy in this new environment.
October 9, 2024
Rising unemployment does not mean recession is inevitable
The sort of increase seen in the U.S. unemployment rate over the past year is an oft-noted predictor of recession. Yet, forecasters currently expect only a modest increase in unemployment with no recession. Is this a reasonable expectation, and if so, how is this unemployment episode different from others?
October 8, 2024
Banking Conditions Survey
Loan volume declined in October despite the drop in loan prices, according to banking executives responding to the Banking Conditions Survey.
October 7, 2024
Austin Economic Indicators
Austin experienced strong employment growth in August, accompanied by a stable unemployment rate. Home prices and the months’ supply of inventory ticked down.
October 3, 2024
Texas Economic Indicators
The Texas economy continued to expand in August. Employment growth strengthened, while the unemployment rate held steady.
October 2, 2024
Houston Economic Indicators
Houston’s labor market rebounded in August, but the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.5 percent. Inflation in the metro area increased slightly in August but is still much slower than at the beginning of the year.
October 2, 2024
Dallas-Fort Worth Economic Indicators
The Dallas−Fort Worth economy expanded in August, with employment bouncing back from the declines seen the prior two months. Average hourly earnings held steady but were above year-ago levels.
October 1, 2024
The Postpandemic U.S. Immigration Surge: New Facts and Inflationary Implications
This paper combines administrative data on border encounters and immigration court records with household survey data to document two new facts about these immigrants: They tend to be hand-to-mouth consumers and low-skilled workers that complement the existing workforce. The authors build these features into a model with capital, household heterogeneity and population growth to study the inflationary effects of this episode.
October 1, 2024