Dallas Fed: Texas employment expected to increase in 2025

DALLAS—The Texas Employment Forecast released by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas indicates jobs will increase 1.9 percent in 2025, with an 80 percent confidence band of 1.2 to 2.6 percent.

Texas employment grew an annualized 2.1 percent in February, while January employment was revised down to 1.7 percent growth.

The forecast is based on an average of four models that include projected national GDP, oil futures prices, and the Texas and U.S. leading indexes.

“February job growth was broad based, led by increases in the energy, leisure and hospitality, and construction sectors,” said Jesus Cañas, Dallas Fed senior business economist. “Only employment in professional and business services dropped. Employment rose in most major metropolitan areas of the state but fell in Houston and Austin.”

Additional key takeaways from the latest Dallas Fed report:

• The forecast suggests 276,000 jobs will be added in the state this year, and employment in December 2025 will be 14.5 million.     
• Texas employment increased by an annualized 2.1 percent month over month in February, an increase from January’s growth of 1.7 percent.  

The unemployment rate, which takes into account changes in the total labor force along with other factors, increased in Austin–Round Rock, Brownsville–Harlingen, Fort Worth–Arlington, Houston–The Woodlands–Sugar Land, and San Antonio–New Braunfels, according to seasonally adjusted numbers from the Dallas Fed.

The rate was unchanged in Dallas–Plano–Irving and El Paso.

LIt decreased in Laredo.

The Texas statewide unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1 percent in February.

Find out more about the Texas Employment Forecast, plus additional information on seasonally adjusted and benchmarked Texas jobs data and metro unemployment rates.

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Media contact:
Jon Prior
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Phone: 214-922-6857
Email: jon.prior@dal.frb.org