Dallas Fed: Texas employment forecast rebounds after storms

DALLAS—The Texas Employment Forecast released by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas indicates jobs will increase 2.2 percent in 2024, with an 80 percent confidence band of 1.9 to 2.5 percent.

This is an increase from the previous month’s forecast of 1.7 percent for 2024.

The forecast is based on an average of four models that include projected national GDP, oil futures prices, and the Texas and U.S. leading indexes.

Texas added roughly 83,200 jobs in August on net, according to seasonally adjusted and benchmarked payroll employment numbers.

The state lost 20,700 jobs in July, which was more than the previous forecast after a revision.

“After Hurricane Beryl's impact in July, Texas employment rebounded in August, gaining 83,200 jobs. Storms like Beryl typically have a transitory effect on employment, and the following month’s employment rebounds as the economy recovers from the storm’s damages,” said Luis Torres, Dallas Fed senior business economist. “Gains were largely broad based across all sectors and were led by construction, manufacturing, financial activities, and leisure and hospitality. Houston, which bore the brunt of Beryl’s force, gained 28,000 jobs. In addition, strong employment growth was observed in the other major metropolitan statistical areas, led by San Antonio and El Paso.”

Additional key takeaways from the latest Dallas Fed report:

• The forecast suggests 307,900 jobs will be added in the state this year, and employment in December 2024 will be 14.3 million.
• Texas employment increased by an annualized 7.3 percent month over month in August, while the July decline was revised further downward to a negative 1.7 percent.

The unemployment rate increased in nearly every major metro area, including Brownsville–Harlingen, Dallas–Plano–Irving, El Paso, Fort Worth–Arlington and Houston–The Woodlands–Sugar Land, according to seasonally adjusted numbers from the Dallas Fed.

The rate remained unchanged in Austin–Round Rock, Laredo and San Antonio–New Braunfels.

The Texas statewide unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.1 percent in August.

Additional information about the Texas Employment Forecast, plus seasonally adjusted and benchmarked Texas jobs data and metro unemployment rates, may be found on DallasFed.org. 

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Media contact:
Jon Prior
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Phone: 214-922-6857
Email: jon.prior@dal.frb.org