Dallas Fed: Texas employment forecast softens due to Hurricane Beryl’s impact

DALLAS—The Texas Employment Forecastreleased by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas indicates jobs will increase 1.6 percent in 2024, with an 80 percent confidence band of 1.2 to 2.0 percent.

This is a decrease from the previous month’s forecast of 1.9 percent for 2024.

The forecast is based on an average of four models that include projected national GDP, oil futures prices, and the Texas and U.S. leading indexes

Texas lost roughly 14,000 jobs in July on net, according to seasonally adjusted and benchmarked payroll employment numbers.

The state lost 7,300 jobs in June, which was revised downward.

“Texas employment in July was impacted by Hurricane Beryl as the state lost around 14,000 jobs,” said Luis Torres, Dallas Fed senior business economist. “The Houston region bore the brunt of Beryl’s winds and rain, which caused widespread power outages and contributed to the loss of 7,000 jobs. Still, employment growth was weak in other major regions not affected by the hurricane, and, in some cases, employment shrunk. Austin and Fort Worth registered declines in jobs, while in Dallas and San Antonio job growth was flat. Although it is difficult to distinguish the net effects of Hurricane Beryl on employment, job losses in sectors not affected by the hurricane, such as professional and business services and health and education jobs, point to a cooling in the job market.”

Additional key takeaways from the latest Dallas Fed report

• The forecast suggests 224,400 jobs will be added in the state this year, and employment in December 2024 will be 14.2 million.
• Texas employment shrank an annualized 1.2 percent month over month in July, while employment in June was revised downward to a decline of 0.6 percent.

The unemployment rate decreased in Brownsville–Harlingen, El Paso, and Fort Worth–Arlington, according to seasonally adjusted numbers from the Dallas Fed.

The rate remained unchanged in Austin–Round Rock, Dallas–Plano–Irving, Houston–The Woodlands–Sugar Land, Laredo, San Antonio–New Braunfels.

The Texas statewide unemployment rate increased slightly to 4.1 percent in July.

Additional information about the Texas Employment Forecast, plus seasonally adjusted and benchmarked Texas jobs data and metro unemployment rates, may be found on DallasFed.org. 

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Media contact:
Jon Prior
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Phone: 214-922-6857
Email: jon.prior@dal.frb.org