Texas employment forecast softens; 32,700 jobs added in May

DALLAS—The Texas Employment Forecast released today by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas indicates jobs will increase 2.4 percent in 2024, with an 80 percent confidence band of 1.9 to 2.9 percent.

This is a decrease from the previous month’s forecast of 2.6 percent for 2024.

The forecast is based on an average of four models that include projected national GDP, oil futures prices and the Texas and U.S. leading indexes.

Texas added 32,700 jobs in May, according to seasonally adjusted and benchmarked payroll employment numbers.

The state added 39,600 jobs in April, which was revised downward.

“Texas employment continued to expand broadly in May with the state adding 32,700 jobs. This brings Texas year-to-date job growth to a solid 2.8 percent,” said Luis Torres, Dallas Fed senior business economist. “In May, leisure and hospitality and trade and transportation led overall job growth followed by construction and manufacturing. The only sectors posting job losses last month were oil and gas and information services. Employment gains in Texas’ major metro areas except for San Antonio decelerated somewhat in May.”

Additional key takeaways from the latest Dallas Fed report:

• The forecast suggests 333,400 jobs will be added in the state this year, and employment in December 2024 will be 14.3 million.
• Texas employment grew an annualized 2.8 percent month over month in May, while April growth was revised downward to 3.4 percent.

The unemployment rate declined in Austin–Round Rock and San Antonio–New Braunfels, according to seasonally adjusted numbers from the Dallas Fed.

The rate increased in Brownsville–Harlingen.

The rate was unchanged in Dallas–Plano–Irving, El Paso, Fort Worth–Arlington, Houston–The Woodlands–Sugar Land, and Laredo.

The Texas statewide unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.0 percent in May.

Additional information about the Texas Employment Forecast, plus seasonally adjusted and benchmarked Texas jobs data and metro unemployment rates, may be found on DallasFed.org.

-30-

Media contact:
Jon Prior
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Phone: 214-922-6857
Email: jon.prior@dal.frb.org