Dallas Fed: Texas employment forecast weakens slightly; 13,700 jobs added in October

DALLAS—The Texas Employment Forecast released today by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas indicates that jobs will increase 3.2 percent in 2023, with an 80 percent confidence band of 3.0 to 3.4 percent.

This is down slightly from the previous month’s forecast of 3.3 percent growth for the year.

The forecast is based on an average of four models that include projected national GDP, oil futures prices and the Texas and U.S. leading indexes.

Texas added 13,700 jobs in October, according to seasonally adjusted and benchmarked payroll employment numbers.

Texas added an upwardly revised 66,000 jobs in September.

“Job growth slowed sharply in October, suggesting the labor market may be finally cooling off after registering such strong growth in the past two years,” said Luis Torres, Dallas Fed senior business economist. “Three sectors reported job losses: construction, manufacturing and other services. Small job gains were evident in education and health, leisure and hospitality, and financial services. Meanwhile, information, oil and gas, professional business services and trade and transportation reported solid job gains.”

Additional key takeaways from the latest Dallas Fed report:

• The forecast suggests that 434,700 jobs will be added in the state this year, and employment in December 2023 will be 14.1 million.
• Texas employment grew an annualized 1.2 percent month over month in October, while September growth was revised up to 5.8 percent.

The unemployment rate decreased in each of Texas’ major metro areas, including Dallas–Plano–Irving, San Antonio–New Braunfels, Houston–The Woodlands–Sugar Land, Austin–Round Rock, El Paso, Fort Worth–Arlington, Laredo, Brownsville–Harlingen and McAllen–Edinburg–Mission, according to seasonally adjusted numbers from the Dallas Fed.

The Texas unemployment rate was 4.1 percent in October.

Additional information about the Texas Employment Forecast, plus seasonally adjusted and benchmarked Texas jobs data and metro unemployment rates, may be found on DallasFed.org.

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Media contact:
Jon Prior
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Phone: 214-922-6857
Email: jon.prior@dal.frb.org