Dallas Fed: Texas employment forecast weakens slightly; 23,500 jobs added in June

DALLAS—The Texas Employment Forecast released today by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas indicates that jobs will increase 2.5 percent in 2023, with an 80 percent confidence band of 2.1 to 3.0 percent. 

This is down from the previous month’s forecast of 2.8 percent growth for the year.   

The forecast is based on an average of four models that include projected national GDP, oil futures prices, and the Texas and U.S. leading indexes.   

Texas added 23,500 jobs in June, according to seasonally adjusted and benchmarked payroll employment numbers.

Texas added a downwardly revised 35,800 jobs in May.   

“Job growth slowed in June due to a loss of momentum in the service sector as the state added around 23,500 jobs. Texas employment growth has decelerated to 3.2 percent year to date as the labor market starts to show signs of cooling,” said Luis Torres, Dallas Fed senior business economist.

Additional key takeaways from the latest Dallas Fed report:

• The forecast suggests that 345,400 jobs will be added in the state this year, and employment in December 2023 will be 14.0 million. 
• Texas employment grew an annualized 2.1 percent month over month in June, while May growth was slightly revised down to 3.2 percent.  

The unemployment rate decreased in most of Texas’ major metro areas, including Dallas–Plano–Irving, San Antonio–New Braunfels, Houston–The Woodlands–Sugar Land, Austin–Round Rock, El Paso, Fort Worth–Arlington, Laredo, Brownsville–Harlingen and McAllen–Edinburg–Mission, according to seasonally adjusted numbers from the Dallas Fed.   

The Texas unemployment rate was 4.1 percent in June, unchanged from May.     

Additional information about the Texas Employment Forecast, plus seasonally adjusted and benchmarked Texas jobs data and metro unemployment rates, may be found on DallasFed.org.  

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Media contact:
Jon Prior
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Phone: 214-922-6857
Email: jon.prior@dal.frb.org