Dallas Fed: Texas adds 28,700 jobs in June; state employment forecast declines slightly to 3.0 percent for 2018
For Immediate Release: July 20, 2018
DALLAS—Texas added 28,700 jobs in June, according to seasonally adjusted and benchmarked payroll employment numbers released today by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
The state added a revised 37,300 jobs in May. That brings the year-to-date annualized growth rate to 3.6 percent.
Incorporating June employment growth of 2.8 percent and new leading index data, the Texas Employment Forecast suggests jobs will grow 3.0 percent this year (December/December), with an 80 percent confidence band of 2.2 to 3.8 percent. Based on the forecast, 370,400 jobs will be added in the state this year, and employment in December 2018 will be 12.7 million.
The forecast fell slightly from the Bank’s estimate of 3.3 percent growth released last month.
“Although June extended Texas’ strong streak of job gains so far this year, the leading index declined over the past three months,” said Keith R. Phillips, Dallas Fed assistant vice president and senior economist. “After a very strong pace of job growth in the first half of the year, the economy is likely to decelerate in the second half. Potential factors behind the slowing are a historically tight labor market and a slowing in exports.”
Growth was mixed across Texas Leading Index components. A surge in the Texas trade-weighted value of the dollar and a decline in help-wanted advertising were the most significant drags on the overall index. An increase in the price of oil, rise in the U.S. leading index, and gains in stock prices of Texas companies were moderately positive additions.
Unemployment rates were flat or rose slightly in eight of nine major Texas metro areas in June, according to seasonally adjusted numbers from the Dallas Fed. Unemployment fell slightly in the Houston metro area.
The Dallas Fed improves Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) payroll employment estimates for Texas by incorporating preliminary benchmarks into the data in a more timely manner and by using a two-step seasonal-adjustment technique. Texas metropolitan-area unemployment rates from the BLS also are seasonally adjusted by the Dallas Fed.
The Dallas Fed releases its Texas Employment Forecast on a monthly basis in conjunction with the release of monthly Texas employment data. The forecast projects job growth for the calendar year and is estimated as the 12-month change in payroll employment from December to December. For information on the methodology for the Bank’s Texas Employment Forecast, visit the Dallas Fed’s website.
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Media contact:
Jennifer Chamberlain
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Phone: (214) 922-6748
E-mail: jennifer.chamberlain@dal.frb.org