Dallas Fed: Texas adds 6,400 jobs in December; state employment forecast declines slightly to 2.8 percent for 2018
For Immediate Release: January 19, 2018
DALLAS—Texas added 6,400 jobs in December, according to seasonally adjusted and benchmarked payroll employment numbers released today by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
The state added a revised 46,900 jobs in November. In 2017, jobs increased by 2.4 percent after rising 1.2 percent in 2016. The monthly annualized growth rate in December was 0.6 percent.
Incorporating December employment growth of 0.6 percent and leading index data, the Texas Employment Forecast suggests jobs will grow 2.8 percent this year (December/December), with an 80 percent confidence band of 1.2 to 4.4 percent.
The forecast was revised downward from the Bank’s estimate of 3 percent growth which was released at the annual Texas Economic Outlook event in San Antonio on Jan. 9.
“Growth last year was 2.4 percent, slightly below our December forecast of 2.5 percent but still strong relative to what we saw in 2015 and 2016,” said Keith R. Phillips, Dallas Fed assistant vice president and senior economist. “The improvement in job growth last year from the weak pace of 1.2 percent in 2016 was primarily due to strong rebounds in the energy and manufacturing sectors.
“While December job growth weakened, it followed two months of strong growth, and overall jobs grew at an annual pace of 2.3 percent in the second half of last year—despite Hurricane Harvey hitting the Gulf Coast.”
Recent gains in the Texas Leading Index suggest that the positive momentum in the state in the second half of last year will carry forward into 2018. Adjusting for a temporary spike and subsequent decline in initial claims for unemployment insurance due to Hurricane Harvey, the Dallas Fed’s Texas Leading Index increased strongly over the three months ending in December. Most of the components increased, with help-wanted advertising posting the largest positive contribution to the index. The U.S. leading index continued to grow at a robust pace over the period, and the Texas Stock Index and real oil prices also saw steady gains. The Texas value of the dollar, average weekly hours worked in manufacturing and initial claims for unemployment insurance were slight drags on the index.
Unemployment rates fell or were flat in seven of the nine major Texas metro areas in December, according to seasonally adjusted numbers from the Dallas Fed. Rates rose slightly the Dallas–Plano–Irving and McAllen–Edinburg–Mission areas.
The Dallas Fed improves Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) payroll employment estimates for Texas by incorporating preliminary benchmarks into the data in a more timely manner and by using a two-step seasonal-adjustment technique. Texas metropolitan-area unemployment rates from the BLS also are seasonally adjusted by the Dallas Fed.
The Dallas Fed releases its Texas Employment Forecast on a monthly basis in conjunction with the release of monthly Texas employment data. The forecast projects job growth for the calendar year and is estimated as the 12-month change in payroll employment from December to December.
For information on the methodology for the Bank’s Texas Employment Forecast, visit the Dallas Fed’s website.
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Media contact:
Jennifer Chamberlain
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Phone: (214) 922-6748
E-mail: jennifer.chamberlain@dal.frb.org