Research and analysis of economic trends and developments
Dallas Fed Economics
May 14, 2024
Lutz Kilian and David Rapson
The decline in Russian oil export revenue since January 2022 was achieved by reducing the Russian export price rather than the volume of Russian oil exports.
May 7, 2024
Robert Leigh, Ana Pranger, Yichen Su and Mariam Yousuf
Texas economic activity expanded at a modest pace in April. While the manufacturing sector rebounded, the service sector slowed. Texas employment growth was moderate in the first quarter, slightly above the state’s roughly 2 percent long-run trend, and the unemployment rate held steady.
April 2, 2024
Alexander W. Richter and Xiaoqing Zhou
The direct impact of higher mortgage rates on housing affordability has received much attention. We emphasize that housing affordability not only depends on mortgage rates but also on house prices, which have competing effects.
March 28, 2024
Jesus Cañas and Diego Morales-Burnett
A majority of Texas Business Outlook Surveys participants expect increasing demand over the next six months, signaling an improving business outlook, even as inflation and wage growth in Texas remain elevated.
March 26, 2024
Enrique Martínez García and Braden Strackman
The U.S. economy boasts robust growth and slowing inflation despite the highest interest rates in two decades. Such performance isn’t common globally, especially among other advanced economies, revealing crucial differences in the fundamental factors driving inflation and growth.
March 5, 2024
Anton Cheremukhin
At first glance, it seems unlikely that the unemployment rate would remain stable if the number of job vacancies decreased. However, such a scenario played out recently as the number of firms seeking to fill positions by poaching employees from other firms increased, while the ranks of the unemployed remained relatively stable.
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Dallas Fed Economics