Research and analysis of economic trends and developments
August 18, 2026
Enrique Martínez García and Ron Mau
Higher tariffs do not automatically show up one-for-one in consumer prices. Price effects depend on how firms respond. Foreign exporters may cut pre-tariff prices to preserve access to the U.S. market, while domestic importers or retailers may absorb part of the increase with lower margins.
August 13, 2026
Tyler Atkinson, Jim Dolmas and Rebecca Zarutskie
To gauge the medium-term trend in underlying inflation, the Dallas Fed’s Trimmed Mean personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation rate drops price changes in the tails of the monthly distribution of PCE components, minimizing the impact of outliers.
August 11, 2026
Scott Davis and Lillian Derr
Government debt financed from domestic savings has a smaller effect on interest rates than government debt financed from foreign borrowing, and nations that are net international creditors can borrow more cheaply than net international debtors. These observations help explain massive government borrowing since 2008 while bond yields remained persistently low.
August 4, 2026
Enrique Martínez García and Ron Mau
Despite regional sourcing and compliance costs, USMCA-based firms enjoy an edge over competitors outside North America facing higher U.S. tariffs.
July 14, 2026
Seth Dunbar, Pon Sagnanert, Alessio Saretto and Guhan Venkatu
Commercial banks have begun exploring adoption of tokenized deposits, traditional deposits that rely on blockchain technology and allow payments to settle almost instantaneously.
July 7, 2026
Scott Davis
Because AI use varies across countries, we can draw on international data to investigate the relationship between AI exposure and productivity growth at the sector level. The positive relationship in the U.S. fits a pattern visible among countries and appears related to high AI use.
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Dallas Fed Economics
