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Research and analysis of economic trends and developments

Rachel A. Jones, Reid Taylor and Nitzan Tzur-Ilan

Overall, homeowners insurance is becoming less affordable, yet this deterioration in affordability is not well captured by either of the most widely used inflation measures—CPI or PCE—both designed to track price levels rather than affordability or household financial strain.

Lorie Logan and Sam Schulhofer-Wohl

Some observers have argued that the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet is too large and complicates the central bank’s operations. We catalog options for reducing the Fed’s major liabilities, which help determine the size of the balance sheet, as well as a framework for assessing the costs and benefits of those options.

Anton Cheremukhin, Daniel Wilson and Xiaoqing Zhou

For policymakers, interpreting labor market conditions increasingly requires looking beyond headline payroll growth and incorporating timely measures of immigration and labor supply.

Shan Ge, Stephanie Johnson and Nitzan Tzur-Ilan

The rise in homeowners insurance premiums since the pandemic is not just a pricing issue; it is a growing source of financial stress, inequality and geographic sorting.

Lutz Kilian, Michael Plante and Alexander W. Richter

The ongoing military conflict between Iran and the United States and Israel has raised concerns about a major disruption of global oil supplies driven by geopolitical events. This conflict has involved attacks on oil infrastructure in neighboring countries, including Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates.

Owen Kay, Lutz Kilian and Reid Taylor

Even a modest data center boom could put upward pressure on retail electricity prices, impacting PCE inflation.

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Dallas Fed Economics