Research and analysis of economic trends and developments
June 25, 2026
Srini Ramaswamy, Seth Searls, Hugo De Vere and Ipek Ozil
Term premium, a central concept in analysis of interest rates and monetary policy, is generally viewed largely as compensation for bearing interest-rate risk. However, Treasury asset swap spreads strongly indicate the existence of a distinct premium—a term funding premium—associated with merely providing term financing. This funding premium shows promise as a real-time indicator of Treasury market stress.
June 23, 2026
Lutz Kilian, Michael D. Plante and and Alexander W. Richter
Recent Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas research shows that the response of U.S. real (inflation-adjusted) GDP growth to the 2026 Iran war is only one-twentieth of what it would have been in 1980. Moreover, the response of U.S. real GDP growth today is only one-sixth of the decline in the rest of the world.
June 2, 2026
Ricardo Reyes-Heroles and Tryg Aanenson
A pair of important and opposing trade shocks hit the U.S. economy during the first quarter of 2026. The U.S. Supreme Court struck down a portion of the tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). The decision on Feb. 20 lowered average U.S. import tariffs by roughly 4.8 percentage points.
May 28, 2026
R. Jay Kahn and Matthew McCormick
The structure of the Treasury and repurchase agreement (repo) markets has changed over the past decade in ways that alter how administered rates pass through to market rates.
May 26, 2026
Anton Cheremukhin and Theresa Rincker
Recent labor market data appear to reflect a low-hire, low-fire equilibrium. Because aggregate layoffs remain low by historical standards, the upward drift in the unemployment rate over the past two years is often viewed as a benign normalization process rather than a cyclical vulnerability.
May 21, 2026
Alexander Chudik and Enrique Martínez García
We compare Federal Reserve Board staff forecasts with professional forecasts from Blue Chip Economic Indicators for headline Consumer Price Index inflation. The relevant question then is not whether inflation forecasts matter, but rather what their content reveals.
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Dallas Fed Economics
