Research and analysis of economic trends and developments
May 12, 2026
Ricardo Reyes-Heroles, Luis Torres and Diego Morales-Burnett
A sequence of major economic and geopolitical events has reshaped the structure of global trade in the past decade. It began with U.S. imposition of tariffs on Chinese goods in 2018. The postpandemic followed with widespread disruption to global value chains—the process of manufacturing a product in stages across several countries.
May 7, 2026
Matthew McCormick and Srini Ramaswamy
Mortgage rates are an important channel for monetary policy pass-through. However, this channel is complex.
May 5, 2026
Ron Mau and Tucker Smith
We compare how price growth evolved in 2025 in core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) categories facing realized tariff rate changes.
April 17, 2026
Lutz Kilian, Michael D. Plante, Alexander W. Richter and Xiaoqing Zhou
Recent research quantifies the impact of 2026 Iran war on U.S. inflation and household inflation expectations under a range of scenarios. Under a plausible scenario, 2026 fourth-quarter-over-fourth quarter headline personal consumption expenditures inflation would increase by 0.6 percentage points.
April 16, 2026
Tyler Atkinson, Jim Dolmas and Rebecca Zarutskie
Divergence of core and trimmed mean inflation readings prompt reassessment of which one is the best indicator of medium-term trend.
April 14, 2026
Cameron Barrett
Retail electricity rates are higher in California than Texas, but electricity cost accounts for a lower share of household budgets in California.
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Dallas Fed Economics
