As Mexican Mass Migration to U.S. Ends, New Arrivals Come from Central America, Asia

I’m at the Pew Research Center. This is our disclaimer. We call ourselves a fact tank. The main thing is that we don’t take policy positions. If I happen to say something policy-related, please don’t quote me. I’m a demographer. I’m not an economist. There are going to be a lot of numbers, but the main thing is not the numbers per se but the trends and the patterns.

The focus is on immigration today, and I have to say I think there’s a mismatch between what the data show about immigration and immigrants and the politics and the rhetoric of it. In particular, unauthorized immigrant numbers have been going down for about a decade now. The total number is the lowest it’s been since 2004.

We had rapid growth in the unauthorized immigrant population until 2007, dramatic declines right after that and the numbers have been drifting down ever since. This is especially true of Mexico. Mexican mass migration to the U.S. has essentially stopped. The huge drop in the number of unauthorized immigrants living in the United States is due to more Mexican people moving from the U.S. to Mexico than from Mexico to the U.S., and that’s been true for a while, and it has sort of slipped under the radar (Chart 1).

Chart 1

To the extent we are getting new unauthorized immigrants—and the numbers are going down—mostly, they are visa overstayers. Apprehensions of Mexicans at the southern border are at a 50-year low. I would say deterrence seems to be working. It’s a question of enforcement, deterrence and we’ve heard a lot about things that are happening in Mexico, as well.

The low flow and the shifts in the origins of unauthorized immigration have consequences both for the migrants themselves and for the country. The fact that the unauthorized population here today has been living in the United States for a long time means that they (the immigrants) put down roots and have families. Lawful immigration numbers have essentially remained unchanged. Immigrants play an important part in our labor force and in labor force growth over the next several decades (Chart 2).

Chart 2

This is a graph of the number of Mexican immigrants (solid dark line) living in the U.S. For just a little history, the numbers weren’t very big in 1970. There were only three-quarters of a million Mexicans immigrants living in the U.S. (Chart 3).

Chart 3

Then something happened, the numbers went straight up (Chart 4).

By 2007, there were about 17 times as many, almost 13 million Mexicans living in the U.S.  They accounted for about one-third of all the immigrants in the U.S. and represented about 10 percent of all the Mexicans in the world. And then, again, the growth all of a sudden stopped. The recession had a lot to do with it, but enforcement made a difference, too. We had a kind of steady downward drift. Now, there’s under 12 million—about 11.6 million Mexicans in the U.S.—about one-quarter of all the immigrants in the U.S., instead of one-third.

So, there were very dramatic changes from 1970 to 2007, and since then, a complete reversal.

Chart 4

This is unauthorized immigrants in total—not just Mexico—and here you can see the numbers were going straight up. This is net growth of about 500,000 a year for about 17 years (Chart 5). And for the numbers to grow by 500,000, it means that we were probably getting 700,000 to 800,000 new unauthorized immigrants every year for this long period of time.

Then again, sudden reversal. For the numbers to drop, it means people have to leave the country. And we saw a drop of about 500,000 a year for two years. And again, we were continuing to get new ones, so it meant something on the order of 700,000 to 800,000 left the country each year for two years. Since then, the numbers have kind of leveled off and [are] drifting down. Our estimate is there are about 10.5 million unauthorized immigrants in the country, and that’s roughly what it was in 2004.

Chart 5

So, there were several big changes here along the way. This is Mexico (Chart 6). The number of unauthorized Mexicans in the U.S. peaked in 2007. It’s just under 7 million and again, dropped by about 500,000 over the next two years.

Chart 6

Since then, overall, the numbers have continued to go down for Mexicans—the last year showed a particularly big drop. We’re under 5 million, according to our estimates, which showed a drop of about 2 million unauthorized immigrants from Mexico living in the U.S. in a 10-year period (Chart 7).

Chart 7

From other countries, the pattern is a bit different. The numbers went up (Chart 8). Since 2007, we’ve seen small increases. Central America plays a role here. And Asia, interestingly, played a role. But what has happened, if you overlay the Mexico line is that there are more unauthorized immigrants from places other than Mexico living in the U.S. now than unauthorized immigrants from Mexico. Mexico is still by far the largest, but it’s not a majority. And this is, from what we can tell, the first time this has ever happened. It just happened in 2017.

Chart 8

We haven’t made estimates for 2018, but the numbers that came out yesterday from the American Community Survey show a very small drop in the total number of Mexicans living in the U.S. So, I don’t expect to see any big shift in these trends over the next year or so. So, Mexico is down 2 million. Central America is up from about 1.5 million to almost 2 million. Asia is up a little bit, at 1.3–1.5 million. The number of unauthorized immigrants from South America and Europe has dropped a little bit, and other places have basically been stable. And this is a 10-year pattern we’re talking about (Chart 9).

Chart 9

The next four largest countries are the Northern Triangle countries—El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras—and India. All of these have shown increases since 2007. It’s worth pointing out—we’re talking Mexico is at 4.9 million. So, Mexico has many more, even with the large drops. These others’ increases in terms of numbers are much smaller, but these four are trending up. The next-largest country is China. It, along with the Dominican Republic, Brazil and the Philippines, basically stayed about the same for 10 years. Since we continue to get new unauthorized immigrants, the stable numbers mean the ones already here are either leaving or, in some cases, becoming legal.

Unauthorized immigrants account for 10.4 million of the almost 46 million immigrants living in the country (Chart 10), or slightly less than one-quarter. It’s been as high as one-third, but it’s been going down as legal immigration continues. The total immigrant population grows, and the unauthorized (population) is falling.

Chart 10

The largest group of immigrants in the country is naturalized citizens. These are people who came here as legal immigrants and have become U.S. citizens. This group, which is just shy of 21 million, is the only one of these that’s been growing. What happens is we get new immigrants who aren’t citizens, but a lot of these people who are non-citizens become citizens. This is the growing part of the immigrant population. Lawful permanent residents, these are green-card holders who have not become U.S. citizens, are a little over a quarter (of the immigrant total). This number, about 12 million, is about the same as it was 25 years ago. In addition, there are about 2 million people who were here legally on temporary visas that allow them to live and work in the U.S. The biggest groups here are foreign students and guest workers—H1B and other types of guest workers.

This next chart shows the same data I showed a little while ago. It’s just a different look. Mexico and Latin America are 75 percent to 80 percent of the total. Asia and other regions are much smaller shares of the unauthorized immigrant population (Chart 11).

Chart 11

Mexico is our largest source of legal immigrants in terms of both the number coming to the U.S. and the number living here. There are about 6.5 million legal immigrants from Mexico, representing about one-fifth of all the legal immigrants living in the United States. The rest of Latin America is about a quarter. Asia is almost a third. It’s a group that’s been growing, with significant numbers from other parts of the world as well.

This is legal immigration–green cards (Chart 12). The numbers have not gone down. They have remained unchanged since about 2001, when new laws kicked in. 2003 was a bit of an aberration. We didn’t reduce the inflows; we increased the security background checks. And so, it was a queuing problem more than anything else; the numbers were made up in the next couple of years.

Chart 12

We’re averaging a little over a million new legal immigrants (green-card holders) a year and have been for basically 20 years. The numbers at the bottom are Mexico. Mexico is usually the largest source of green cards.

So, the overall pattern—growth and then decline, as you can see, is driven by Mexicans, and the drop in new arrivals—that is, new unauthorized immigrants coming to the country—is also driven by Mexicans. Most unauthorized immigrants from places other than Mexico and Central America are visa overstayers. Most from Mexico and Central America are what the border patrol calls EWIs—Entries Without Inspection—people sneaking across the southern border.

My sense is the southern border is generally secure. The apprehensions of Mexicans are at a 50-year low (Chart 13). In addition, there are some statistics that are put out by DHS (Department of Homeland Security) that suggest they’re doing a much better job of catching people trying to sneak in.

Chart 13

The big increases in the last several years are Central Americans, in particular families. Again, my sense is they’re not trying to evade capture, they’re coming to the border and actually turning themselves in. The historic notion that for every one immigrant we catch, some larger number get away—in the case of Central Americans—is probably not correct.

Our enforcement strategy seems to have worked. We have fences in the places where it’s easy to cross, which has forced people to try to cross in deserts and mountains and rugged terrain. We’ve greatly increased the size of the border patrol over the last 20 years. They have much more technology available in terms of sensors and drones and the ability to spot people trying to sneak in. And in Mexico itself, it’s hard to get to the border.

Chart 14 

The current increase in illegal immigration is mainly due to visa overstayers (Chart 14). We’re getting, according to our estimates, about 260,000 overstays a year added to the U.S. population. The majority of them are from Asia, South America and other parts of the world. With this change in the pattern and the drop in new arrivals, the unauthorized immigrant population is increasingly rooted here in the U.S. About two-thirds of all unauthorized immigrant adults have been here for 10 years or more. Ten years ago, it was about one-third. In the case of Mexico, the numbers are ever more extreme. Five out of six (83 percent) unauthorized Mexican immigrants have been here 10 years or more and only about 8 percent have been here less than five years.

These families—immigrants, especially unauthorized—are more likely to be couples with children (Chart 15). About 43 percent of households headed by unauthorized immigrants are couples with children.

Chart 15

The share among U.S. native households is only 18 percent and, a lot of those native households are old. About 91 percent of unauthorized male immigrants are in the workforce. That compares with 79 percent of U.S. natives in the same age span. Legal immigrants fall in between. In the case of women, the pattern is reversed. About three-quarters of native women of working age are in the workforce and only 60 percent of unauthorized immigrant women. The main difference between these populations is the presence of children under (age) five in a household. A lot more of the unauthorized immigrant women appear to be staying home with young children than native women.

This next chart goes back to something (Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President) Robert Kaplan said yesterday: What does this look like going into the future? For the next 20 years, all growth in the labor force will come from new immigrants and U.S.-born children of current immigrants (Chart 16). The labor force numbers among the third-plus generation—U.S. born with U.S.-born parents—will go down. This is the baby boomers aging out of the workforce.

Chart 16

But what would happen if we didn’t have immigrants coming in? The working-age population would decrease by 2035 (Chart 17). Basically, any growth in the labor force that we’re likely to see over the next 20 years is going to come from immigrants who are not yet in the country. Thank you.

Chart 17