http://dallasfed.org/research/updates.cfm The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas reviews recent economic conditions in Texas and the nation and the globe. http://www.dallasfed.org/images/rss-logo.gif http://www.dallasfed.org/ Tues, Nov 17, 2009 10:00 CST http://dallasfed.org/research/update-us/2009/0907.cfm http://dallasfed.org/research/update-us/2009/0907.cfm With the close of 2009 approaching, the overall national economic picture remains much the same as the previous month. Many major data releases over the past two weeks indicate that economic activity continues to pick up, but some indicators suggest that we still have some way to go in the journey toward stability. Mon, Nov 16, 2009 13:30 CST http://dallasfed.org/research/update-reg/2009/0907.cfm http://dallasfed.org/research/update-reg/2009/0907.cfm Regional economic conditions are weak but improving. Employment fell again in September, and a benchmark revision of Texas jobs data for the first half of the year resulted in additional payroll declines of 63,500 since December 2008. State GDP and personal income data, however, suggest that economic activity may have bottomed out in the second quarter. Stimulus measures, transfer payments and public sector growth are making up for some of the private-sector weakness. Forward-looking measures remain more positive than coincident data, suggesting the outlook is for continued improvement. Mon, Nov 9, 2009 11:00 CST http://dallasfed.org/institute/update/2009/int0907.cfm http://dallasfed.org/institute/update/2009/int0907.cfm While the economic outlook has generally improved, there remain some causes for concern. Early third quarter GDP shows some countries growing robustly, while there are still negative signs for others. Though some financial indicators show dramatic improvement, credit remains tight and most central banks have yet to unwind monetary stimulus. Signs of an economic recovery are out there, but they keep getting blurred by downside risks. Tues, Oct 13, 2009 12:45 CST http://dallasfed.org/research/energy/en0903.cfm http://dallasfed.org/research/energy/en0903.cfm Oil prices have hovered around $70 per barrel for two months. While up more than 50 percent this year, prices are still more than 30 percent below year-ago levels. Natural gas has rebounded from its recent lows, but oil continues to trade at a significant premium on an energy content basis. Tues, Oct 13, 2009 9:45 CST http://dallasfed.org/research/update-us/2009/0906.cfm http://dallasfed.org/research/update-us/2009/0906.cfm As we enter the final quarter of 2009, a number of important indicators are beginning to show expansion, suggesting that the trough of the current contraction may have come in the second quarter of this year. However, not all incoming information has been positive. Some data suggest that any optimism should be tempered, that this fledgling recovery has a long way to go before the economy achieves stability, and that the key word moving forward is "uncertainty." Wed, Oct 7, 2009 9:45 CST http://dallasfed.org/research/update-reg/2009/0906.cfm http://dallasfed.org/research/update-reg/2009/0906.cfm The Eleventh District economy continues to show signs of stabilization; however, downside risks could hamper growth. Household financial stress and continued softness in the labor market are suppressing consumer spending, and weakness in the energy sector due to low natural gas prices remains a drag on the Texas economy. Commercial real estate is an area of concern and will be for some time. Wed, Oct 7, 2009 9:45 CST http://dallasfed.org/institute/update/2009/int0906.cfm http://dallasfed.org/institute/update/2009/int0906.cfm There are positive signals in the international data, although trouble spots still exist. Emerging markets were showing strong growth in the second quarter. Some advanced economies began growing as well. However, unemployment is rising in most countries, and credit growth in Europe is stagnant. Inflation remains low (negative in some cases) in advanced economies. Thurs, Sept 3, 2009 14:30 CST http://dallasfed.org/institute/update/2009/int0905.cfm http://dallasfed.org/institute/update/2009/int0905.cfm The outlook for U.S. and global growth remains uncertain, but the prospects have improved somewhat. The banking sector appears to have stabilized, but significant levels of slack have accumulated during the current recession (especially in the advanced economies), contributing to the perception that inflation may remain below its long-run trend for a while. Mon, Aug 24, 2009 10:35 CST http://dallasfed.org/research/update-us/2009/0905.cfm http://dallasfed.org/research/update-us/2009/0905.cfm Recent data revisions show that output fell much more steeply last year than was first thought. Newly available monthly indicators suggest, though, that the downturn will soon end, or has in fact already ended. Production is stabilizing, new orders are rising, and firms are making progress in controlling their inventories. Long-leading financial indicators signal that growth is likely through at least the end of 2009. Wed, Aug 19, 2009 14:45 CST http://dallasfed.org/research/update-reg/2009/0905.cfm http://dallasfed.org/research/update-reg/2009/0905.cfm The Eleventh District economy has displayed evidence of further stabilization. Recent data and anecdotal reports indicate the Texas economy is flattening at subdued levels, with some hope of improvement toward the end of the year. Tues, Aug 4, 2009 16:30 CST http://dallasfed.org/research/update-hou/2009/0904.cfm http://dallasfed.org/research/update-hou/2009/0904.cfm Fundamentals are improving for the Houston economy, which seems to be responding to better news. The U.S. recession is apparently drawing to a close, with a wide range of measures pointing to a turnaround in the fall. Oil prices and a variety of other commodity prices have moved up in recent weeks, reacting to massive stimulus purchases out of China and to the approaching U.S. recovery. Tues, 12 May 2009 10:00 CST http://dallasfed.org/research/energy/en0902.cfm http://dallasfed.org/research/energy/en0902.cfm Although demand for oil remains weak, prices have rebounded from the lows of the first quarter. As of early May, the spot price for West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) was near $54 per barrel, over 25 percent higher than the first quarter average of $42.88. If economic activity picks up in the latter half of the year, we can expect further firming in oil prices.