2015

Research Publications
Agricultural Survey, First Quarter 2015 image
Updated: March 30, 2015
Bankers responding to the first-quarter survey reported receiving beneficial winter rain and snow but said more moisture is needed. Farm commodity prices remained low, and there was widespread concern among respondents about debt and profitability this year.
Research Publications
Behind the Numbers: PCE Inflation Update, February 2015
Updated: March 30, 2015
After three consecutive monthly declines, the headline, or all-items, PCE price index rose at a 2.1 percent annualized rate in February.
Research & Data
Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate
Updated: March 30, 2015
The Trimmed Mean PCE inflation rate for February was an annualized 2.0 percent. According to the BEA, the overall PCE inflation rate for February was var 2.1 percent, annualized, while the inflation rate for PCE excluding food and energy was 1.6 percent.
Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey
Texas Manufacturing Activity Weakens
Updated: March 30, 2015
Texas factory activity declined in March, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, fell to -5.2, posting its first negative reading in nearly two years.
Economic Letter, March 2015
International Migration Remains the Last Frontier of Globalization image
Updated: March 26, 2015
Allowing greater international migration, though controversial, offers the potential of outsized economic output gains relative to what’s possible with further liberalization of trade or capital flows.
Economic Indicators
El Paso Economic Indicators, March 2015 image
Updated: March 24, 2015
The El Paso economy continued to expand in January, albeit at a slower pace than in December, according to the Dallas Fed's El Paso Business-Cycle index. In January, the index advanced at an annualized rate of 0.8 percent, compared with December's gain of 2.0 percent.
Globalization & Monetary Policy Institute
Monetary Policy Moves May Revive Listless Global Growth
Updated: March 20, 2015
In 2014, global real gross domestic product (GDP) grew 3 percent year over year, its lowest value since 2009.
Research Publications
Mexico Outlook Deteriorates Despite Faster Growth in Fourth Quarter
Updated: March 19, 2015
Mexico’s economy expanded 2.1 percent in 2014, according to official tallies, which measure annual average growth. Based on the four-quarter change, gross domestic product (GDP) growth came in at 2.6 percent last year, up from 1 percent in 2013.
Research Publications
Regional Economy Moderates
Updated: March 19, 2015
The Texas economy continues to expand, but there are signs that growth is slowing. Some major metro areas have begun to experience slower growth, especially in locations where energy industry jobs make up a large portion of employment
Research Publications
Labor Market Improves While Inflation Slumps
Updated: March 18, 2015
Economic indicators released since late January suggest that the U.S. will sustain trend growth in the medium term.
Southwest Economy, First Quarter 2015
On the Record: Immigrant Legalization Offers Range of Economic Gains, Some Fiscal Costs image
Updated: March 18, 2015
Pia Orrenius is a vice president and senior economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. She has written extensively on the economic effects of immigration and coauthored the book Beside the Golden Door: U.S. Immigration Reform in a New Era of Globalization. She discusses the Obama administrationâ??s recently announced plans to legalize the status of several million unauthorized immigrants.
Southwest Economy, First Quarter 2015
Texas Metros' Rapid Growth Likely to Slow Following Energy Price Drop image
Updated: March 18, 2015
Houston and Midland will be most affected by the oil and gas sector's slump. Activity may slow in other Texas metropolitan areas, but they will avoid major fallout because of economic diversification that has occurred in recent decades.
Southwest Economy, First Quarter 2015
Lower Oil Prices Weaken Prospects for Job, Economic Growth in Texas image
Updated: March 18, 2015
Although the relative importance of oil and gas to the Texas economy has grown in recent years, lower energy prices are unlikely to halt net job growth statewide.
Southwest Economy, First Quarter 2015
Texas Facing Economic Headwinds in 2015 image
Updated: March 18, 2015
Texas job growth is likely to slow in 2015 from last yearâ??s rapid pace as the state economy absorbs the impact of collapsing energy prices that have curtailed oil patch activity.
Economic Research Publications
Austin Economic Indicators, March 13, 2015 image
Updated: March 13, 2015
The Austin economy expanded at a moderate pace in January.
Economic Indicators
San Antonio Economic Indicators, March 12, 2015 image
Updated: March 12, 2015
The San Antonio economy continued to expand moderately in January. Nonfarm payroll jobs grew at an annual rate of 3.1 percent, outpacing the state by over a percentage point. Unemployment ticked up slightly to 4 percent, though it remains near postrecession lows. While
Research Publications
Houston Economic Indicators, March 12, 2015 image
Updated: March 12, 2015
The Houston Business-Cycle Index increased just 1.1 percent in January after climbing a revised 4.7 percent in December.
Research Publications
Dallas–Fort Worth Economic Indicators, March 10, 2015 image
Updated: March 10, 2015
The Dallas-Fort Worth economy continues to expand at a solid pace. In January, DFW employment grew 4.6 percent, outperforming the state's 1.7 percent rate.
Research Publications
Dallas Beige Book
Updated: March 4, 2015
The Eleventh District economy expanded at roughly the same pace as in the prior reporting period.
Research Publications
Behind the Numbers: PCE Inflation Update, January 2015
Updated: March 2, 2015
The headline, or all-items, PCE price index fell at a 5.3 percent annualized rate in January, as gasoline prices recorded their biggest one-month drop since December 2008.
Economic Research Publications
El Paso Economic Indicators, February 24, 2015 image
Updated: February 24, 2015
Overall economic activity continues to expand in El Paso, according to the Dallas Fed's El Paso Business-Cycle index.
Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey
Texas Service Sector Activity Continues to Expand and Business Conditions Improve Slightly
Updated: February 24, 2015
Texas service sector activity continued to reflect expansion in February, according to business executives responding to the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey. The revenue index, a key measure of state service sector conditions, edged up from 12.1 to 13.6 but remained below its 2014 average.
Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey
Texas Manufacturing Activity Remains Flat
Updated: February 23, 2015
Texas factory activity posted a second month of no growth in February, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, remained near zero (0.7) and indicated output was essentially unchanged from January levels.
Research Publications
Houston Economic Indicators, February 12, 2015 image
Updated: February 12, 2015
The Houston Business-Cycle Index decelerated to 4.3 percent growth in December after rising a revised 5.8 and 7.2 percent in November and October.
Economic Research Publications
Austin Economic Indicators, February 5, 2015 image
Updated: February 5, 2015
The Austin economy grew at a stable pace in December. Jobs expanded at a modest annualized rate of 0.7 percent, while the unemployment rate fell sharply to 3.7 percent.
Globalization & Monetary Policy Institute
U.S. Shines Despite Dim Global Outlook
Updated: February 3, 2015
Weakness in the euro area, Japan and some emerging economies (especially oil-exporting countries) has dimmed the global outlook.
Research Publications
Behind the Numbers: PCE Inflation Update, December 2014
Updated: February 2, 2015
The headline, or all-items, PCE price index fell at a 2.8 percent annualized rate in December, following a 2 percent rate of decline in November.
Reports on Regional Economic Activity
Texas Economic Update: January 2015 (Video) image
Updated: February 2, 2015
Mine K. Yücel, Dallas Fed senior vice president and director of research, provides updates on Texas job growth and the energy sector.
Research Publications
Mexico Outlook Deteriorates Despite Faster Growth in Fourth Quarter
Updated: January 30, 2015
Mexico’s economy expanded 2.1 percent in 2014, according to official tallies, which measure annual average growth. Based on the four-quarter change, gross domestic product (GDP) growth came in at 2.6 percent last year, up from 1 percent in 2013.
Research Publications
Oil Price Decline Continues; Consumer Sentiment Drives Output
Updated: January 30, 2015
Economic data released since mid-December indicate robust growth in the second half of 2014. Oil prices continued to decline, boosting household real disposable income.
Research Publications
Mexico Economy Plods Along Despite Headwinds
Updated: January 30, 2015
Mexico's economy continued growing into the fourth quarter as the monthly proxy for gross domestic product (GDP) picked up in October and November following lackluster third-quarter output growth of 2 percent.
Economic Research Publications
San Antonio Economic Indicators, January 29, 2015 image
Updated: January 29, 2015
San Antonio Economic Indicators is a monthly web publication of key economic indicators that offers a snapshot of the San Antonio economy.
Research Publications
Regional Outlook: Moderate Growth Ahead
Updated: January 29, 2015
Economic growth in the Eleventh District moderated somewhat as oil prices fell to five-year lows. Oil well permits and the Texas rig count have seen significant declines, and exports have continued to fall.
Economic Research Publications
El Paso Economic Indicators, January 27, 2015 image
Updated: January 27, 2015
Overall economic activity continues to expand in the El Paso metropolitan area, according to the Dallas Fed's El Paso Business-Cycle index.
Research Publications
Dallas–Fort Worth Economic Indicators, January 27, 2015 image
Updated: January 27, 2015
The Dallas-Fort Worth economy continued to expand at a solid pace in December. In 2014, DFW employment grew at 3.6 percent, matching the state's 3.6 percent rate but outpacing the nation's 2.1 percent increase.
Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey
Texas Service Sector Activity Increases at a Slower Pace as Optimism Wanes
Updated: January 27, 2015
Texas service sector activity expanded at a slower pace in January, according to business executives responding to the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey. The revenue index, a key measure of state service sector conditions, dropped from 22.2 to 12.1, its lowest reading in 11 months.
Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey
Texas Manufacturing Activity Stalls and Outlook Worsens
Updated: January 26, 2015
Texas factory activity was flat in January, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, came in at 0.7, indicating output was essentially unchanged from December.
Economic Indicators
Texas Economic Indicators, January 26, 2015 image
Updated: January 26, 2015
The Texas economy continues to expand, with employment growing at a 3.7 percent annualized rate in December.
Economic Letter
Current Account Surplus May Damp the Effects of China's Credit Boom image
Updated: January 20, 2015
In contrast to similar credit expansions in the euro periphery in the 2000s and East Asia in the 1990s, China's credit boom is far less likely to end in a dramatic bust because it's financed by domestic savings.
Research Publications
Dallas Beige Book
Updated: January 14, 2015
The Eleventh District economy expanded at a slightly slower pace over the past six weeks than in the previous report.
News Releases
2015 Texas Job Growth Forecast Still Healthy Despite Oil Price Shock, Says Dallas Fed
Updated: January 13, 2015
State Projected to Add 235,000 to 295,000 Jobs This Year; Less Than 2014, According to Bank's Annual Texas Economic Outlook
Research Publications
Houston Economic Indicators, January 2015 image
Updated: January 8, 2015
The Houston Business-Cycle Index growth rate slowed to 6 percent in November from 7.4 percent in October.
Research Publications
Oil Prices Plummet amid Growing Supply–Demand Imbalances
Updated: January 8, 2015
Oil prices plunged during the fourth quarter as a result of expanding world oil supply and changes in expectations for future supply and demand.
Economic Indicators
Texas Economic Indicators, January 2015 image
Updated: January 7, 2015
The Texas economy continues to expand, with employment growing at a 3.2 percent annual rate in November. Texas existing-home sales, single-family permits and housing starts all fell in November. Texas exports decreased from October to November. Manufacturing activity rose at a faster pace in December than in November, according to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey.
Economic Research Publications
Austin Economic Indicators, January 2015 image
Updated: January 2, 2015
The Austin economy grew at a steady pace in November. Jobs grew at a modest pace of 2.3 percent annualized, while the unemployment rate remained flat at a low 4.1 percent.

 

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