2015

Globalization & Monetary Policy Institute
Advanced Economies Lead Moderate Global Growth
Updated: August 4, 2015
Forward-looking indicators point to a modest global expansion. The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), which reflects the growth of the manufacturing sector, reached 52.9 for the world (excluding the U.S.) in June, its highest level since February 2014.
Institute Working Papers
Institute Working Paper 246: Testing for a Housing Bubble at the National and Regional Level: The Case of Israel image
Updated: July 31, 2015
Between 2008 and 2013, home prices in Israel appreciated by roughly 50 percent in real terms, with increases of nearly 60 percent in some regions.
Institute Working Papers
Institute Working Paper 245: Is There a Debt-threshold Effect on Output Growth? image
Updated: July 20, 2015
This paper studies the long-run impact of public debt expansion on economic growth and investigates whether the debt-growth relation varies with the level of indebtedness.
Institute Working Papers
Institute Working Paper 244: A New Monthly Indicator of Global Real Economic Activity image
Updated: July 17, 2015
In modelling macroeconomic time series, often a monthly indicator of global real economic activity is used. We propose a new indicator, named World steel production, and compare it to other existing indicators, precisely the Kilian’s index of global real economic activity and the index of OECD World industrial production.
Institute Working Papers
Institute Working Paper 243: On the Sustainability of Exchange Rate Target Zones with Central Parity Realignments image
Updated: July 7, 2015
This paper shows that parity realignments alone do not suffice to ensure the long-run sustainability of an exchange rate target zone with imperfect credibility due to the gambler’s ruin problem.
Globalization & Monetary Policy Institute
Emerging Market Slump Highlighted by Slowdown of Chinese Economy
Updated: June 23, 2015
Heading into the second half of 2015, conditions improved in the U.S., among other advanced economies, while growth prospects for most emerging markets remain challenging and have even deteriorated.
Institute Working Papers
Institute Working Paper 242: Country-Specific Oil Supply Shocks and the Global Economy: A Counterfactual Analysis image
Updated: May 22, 2015
This paper investigates the global macroeconomic consequences of country-specific oilsupply shocks.
Institute Working Papers
Institute Working Paper 241: What Drives the Global Interest Rate image
Updated: May 22, 2015
In this paper we study the drivers of global interest rate. Global interest rate is defined as a principal component for the largest developed and developing economies' discount rates.
Institute Working Papers
Institute Working Paper 240: Monetary Policy Expectations and Economic Fluctuations at the Zero Lower Bound image
Updated: May 15, 2015
Using a panel of survey-based measures of future interest rates from the Survey of Professional Forecasters, we study the dynamic relationship between shocks to monetary policy expectations and fluctuations in economic activity and inflation.
Institute Working Papers
Institute Working Paper 239: Fair Weather or Foul? The Macroeconomic Effects of El Niño image
Updated: May 8, 2015
This paper employs a dynamic multi-country framework to analyze the international macroeconomic transmission of El Niño weather shocks.
Institute Working Papers
Institute Working Paper 238: Private News and Monetary Policy Forward Guidance or (The Expected Virtue of Ignorance) image
Updated: May 8, 2015
How should monetary policy be designed when the central bank has private information about future economic conditions?
Institute Working Papers
Institute Working Paper 237: Financial Frictions and Policy Cooperation: A Case with Monopolistic Banking and Staggered Loan Contracts image
Updated: May 4, 2015
Do financial frictions call for policy cooperation?
Institute Working Papers
Institute Working Paper 236: Cross-Border Resolution of Global Banks image
Updated: May 1, 2015
Most recent regulations establish that resolution of global banking groups shall be done according to bail-in procedures and following a Single Point of Entry (SPE) as opposed to a Multiple Point of Entry (MPE) approach.
Globalization & Monetary Policy Institute
Global Growth Uneven, Inflation Low
Updated: April 30, 2015
The global growth outlook remains mixed, with prospects improving in advanced economies and weakening in emerging economies.
Institute Working Papers
Institute Working Paper 235: Forecasting Local Inflation with Global Inflation: When Economic Theory Meets the Facts image
Updated: April 9, 2015
This paper provides both theoretical insight as well as empirical evidence in support of the view that inflation is largely a global phenomenon.
Institute Working Papers
Institute Working Paper 234: Sustainable International Monetary Policy Cooperation image
Updated: April 9, 2015
We provide new insight on international monetary policy cooperation using a symmetric two-country model based on Benigno and Benigno [2006].
Institute Working Papers
Institute Working Paper 233: Policy Regime Change Against Chronic Deflation? Policy Option Under a Long-term Liquidity Trap image
Updated: April 7, 2015
This paper evaluates the role of the first arrow of Abenomics in guiding public perceptions on monetary policy stance through the management of expectations.
Institute Working Papers
Institute Working Paper 0232: Global Financial Market Impact of the Announcement of the ECB's Extended Asset Purchase Programme image
Updated: April 7, 2015
We estimate the impact of the ECB's announcement of the extended asset purchase programme (EAPP) on 22 January 2015 on global equity prices, bond yields and the euro exchange rate.
Institute Working Papers
Institute Working Paper 231: Evolving Comparative Advantage, Sectoral Linkages, and Structural Change image
Updated: April 7, 2015
I quantitatively examine the effects of location- and sector-specific productivity growth on structural change across countries from 1970-2011. The results shed new light on the "hump shape" in industry's share in GDP across levels of development.
Globalization & Monetary Policy Institute
Monetary Policy Moves May Revive Listless Global Growth
Updated: March 20, 2015
In 2014, global real gross domestic product (GDP) grew 3 percent year over year, its lowest value since 2009.
Institute Working Papers
Institute Working Paper No. 230: Do Bank Loans and Local Amenities Explain Chinese Urban House Prices?
Updated: March 5, 2015
Do Bank Loans and Local Amenities Explain Chinese Urban House Prices?
Institute Working Papers
Institute Working Paper No. 229: Real Exchange Rate Forecasting and PPP: This Time the Random Walk Loses
Updated: March 5, 2015
Real Exchange Rate Forecasting and PPP: This Time the Random Walk Loses
Institute Working Papers
Institute Working Paper No. 228: Monitoring the World Business Cycle
Updated: March 5, 2015
Monitoring the World Business Cycle
Institute Working Papers
Institute Working Paper No. 227: Bank and Sovereign Risk Feedback Loops
Updated: February 25, 2015
Bank and Sovereign Risk Feedback Loops
Institute Working Papers
Institute Working Paper No. 226: The Asymmetric Effects of Deflation on Consumption Spending: Evidence from the Great Depression
Updated: February 25, 2015
The Asymmetric Effects of Deflation on Consumption Spending: Evidence from the Great Depression
Institute Working Papers
Institute Working Paper No. 225: The Global Component of Local Inflation: Revisiting the Empirical Content of the Global Slack Hypothesis with Bayesian Methods
Updated: February 18, 2015
The Global Component of Local Inflation: Revisiting the Empirical Content of the Global Slack Hypothesis with Bayesian Methods
Globalization Institute Publications
2014 Globalization & Monetary Policy Institute Annual Report
Updated: February 5, 2015
This year's institute annual report contains essays by three of the senior staff of the institute explaining how their individual research programs have helped advance our understanding of globalization.
Globalization & Monetary Policy Institute
U.S. Shines Despite Dim Global Outlook
Updated: February 3, 2015
Weakness in the euro area, Japan and some emerging economies (especially oil-exporting countries) has dimmed the global outlook.
Institute Working Papers
Institute Working Paper No. 224: Pegging the Exchange Rate to Gain Monetary Policy Credibility
Updated: January 26, 2015
Central banks that lack credibility often tie their exchange rate to that of a more credible partner in order to “import” credibility. We show in a small open economy model that a central bank that displays “limited credibility” can deliver significant improvements to a social welfare function that contains no role for exchange rate stabilization by maximizing an objective function that places weight on exchange rate stabilization, and thus the central bank with limited credibility will peg their currency to that of a more credible partner.
Institute Working Papers
Institute Working Paper No. 223: Long-Run Effects in Large Heterogenous Panel Data Models with Cross-Sectionally Correlated Errors
Updated: January 21, 2015
This paper develops a cross-sectionally augmented distributed lag (CS-DL) approach to the estimation of long-run effects in large dynamic heterogeneous panel data models with crosssectionally dependent errors.
Institute Working Papers
Institute Working Paper No. 222: Trilemma, Not Dilemma: Financial Globalisation and Monetary Policy Effectiveness
Updated: January 20, 2015
We investigate whether the classic Mundell-Flemming "trilemma" has morphed into a "dilemma" due to financial globalisation.
Institute Working Papers
Institute Working Paper No. 221: Housing Markets and Current Account Dynamics image
Updated: January 20, 2015
The author documents a strong negative correlation, both across and within countries, between housing and current account dynamics.

 

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