2015

Globalization & Monetary Policy Institute
Global Growth Uneven, Inflation Low
Updated: April 30, 2015
The global growth outlook remains mixed, with prospects improving in advanced economies and weakening in emerging economies.
Institute Working Papers
Institute Working Paper 235: Forecasting Local Inflation with Global Inflation: When Economic Theory Meets the Facts image
Updated: April 9, 2015
This paper provides both theoretical insight as well as empirical evidence in support of the view that inflation is largely a global phenomenon.
Institute Working Papers
Institute Working Paper 234: Sustainable International Monetary Policy Cooperation image
Updated: April 9, 2015
We provide new insight on international monetary policy cooperation using a symmetric two-country model based on Benigno and Benigno [2006].
Institute Working Papers
Institute Working Paper 233: Policy Regime Change Against Chronic Deflation? Policy Option Under a Long-term Liquidity Trap image
Updated: April 7, 2015
This paper evaluates the role of the first arrow of Abenomics in guiding public perceptions on monetary policy stance through the management of expectations.
Institute Working Papers
Institute Working Paper 0232: Global Financial Market Impact of the Announcement of the ECB's Extended Asset Purchase Programme image
Updated: April 7, 2015
We estimate the impact of the ECB's announcement of the extended asset purchase programme (EAPP) on 22 January 2015 on global equity prices, bond yields and the euro exchange rate.
Institute Working Papers
Institute Working Paper 231: Evolving Comparative Advantage, Sectoral Linkages, and Structural Change image
Updated: April 7, 2015
I quantitatively examine the effects of location- and sector-specific productivity growth on structural change across countries from 1970-2011. The results shed new light on the "hump shape" in industry's share in GDP across levels of development.
Globalization & Monetary Policy Institute
Monetary Policy Moves May Revive Listless Global Growth
Updated: March 20, 2015
In 2014, global real gross domestic product (GDP) grew 3 percent year over year, its lowest value since 2009.
Institute Working Papers
Institute Working Paper No. 230: Do Bank Loans and Local Amenities Explain Chinese Urban House Prices?
Updated: March 5, 2015
Do Bank Loans and Local Amenities Explain Chinese Urban House Prices?
Institute Working Papers
Institute Working Paper No. 229: Real Exchange Rate Forecasting and PPP: This Time the Random Walk Loses
Updated: March 5, 2015
Real Exchange Rate Forecasting and PPP: This Time the Random Walk Loses
Institute Working Papers
Institute Working Paper No. 228: Monitoring the World Business Cycle
Updated: March 5, 2015
Monitoring the World Business Cycle
Institute Working Papers
Institute Working Paper No. 227: Bank and Sovereign Risk Feedback Loops
Updated: February 25, 2015
Bank and Sovereign Risk Feedback Loops
Institute Working Papers
Institute Working Paper No. 226: The Asymmetric Effects of Deflation on Consumption Spending: Evidence from the Great Depression
Updated: February 25, 2015
The Asymmetric Effects of Deflation on Consumption Spending: Evidence from the Great Depression
Institute Working Papers
Institute Working Paper No. 225: The Global Component of Local Inflation: Revisiting the Empirical Content of the Global Slack Hypothesis with Bayesian Methods
Updated: February 18, 2015
The Global Component of Local Inflation: Revisiting the Empirical Content of the Global Slack Hypothesis with Bayesian Methods
Globalization Institute Publications
2014 Globalization & Monetary Policy Institute Annual Report
Updated: February 5, 2015
This year's institute annual report contains essays by three of the senior staff of the institute explaining how their individual research programs have helped advance our understanding of globalization.
Globalization & Monetary Policy Institute
U.S. Shines Despite Dim Global Outlook
Updated: February 3, 2015
Weakness in the euro area, Japan and some emerging economies (especially oil-exporting countries) has dimmed the global outlook.
Institute Working Papers
Institute Working Paper No. 224: Pegging the Exchange Rate to Gain Monetary Policy Credibility
Updated: January 26, 2015
Central banks that lack credibility often tie their exchange rate to that of a more credible partner in order to “import” credibility. We show in a small open economy model that a central bank that displays “limited credibility” can deliver significant improvements to a social welfare function that contains no role for exchange rate stabilization by maximizing an objective function that places weight on exchange rate stabilization, and thus the central bank with limited credibility will peg their currency to that of a more credible partner.
Institute Working Papers
Institute Working Paper No. 223: Long-Run Effects in Large Heterogenous Panel Data Models with Cross-Sectionally Correlated Errors
Updated: January 21, 2015
This paper develops a cross-sectionally augmented distributed lag (CS-DL) approach to the estimation of long-run effects in large dynamic heterogeneous panel data models with crosssectionally dependent errors.
Institute Working Papers
Institute Working Paper No. 222: Trilemma, Not Dilemma: Financial Globalisation and Monetary Policy Effectiveness
Updated: January 20, 2015
We investigate whether the classic Mundell-Flemming "trilemma" has morphed into a "dilemma" due to financial globalisation.
Institute Working Papers
Institute Working Paper No. 221: Housing Markets and Current Account Dynamics image
Updated: January 20, 2015
The author documents a strong negative correlation, both across and within countries, between housing and current account dynamics.

 

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