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Issue 2, March/April 2006
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
President's Perspective
 The
economy is one of my passions, and I am a collector
of sorts.
As I read and listen during the
day, I gather bits of information on a global economy
that produces jumbo jets, microchips and everything
in between. A tidbit usually grabs my attention because
it provides a lesson—sometimes a small one, sometimes
a big one.
I’d like to share a few.
- Starting a business takes five days in the United
States, compared with 45 days in Germany, 108 in Spain
and no one knows how many in China. These numbers
hint at America’s true strength—a flexible,
adaptable economy that doesn’t try to thwart
competition from new enterprises.
- China has to sell 800 million shirts to buy a single
Airbus A380 jet. I could ask for no better example
of international division of labor and how it pays
to move up to higher value-added production.
- The Apple I personal computer sold for $667 in
1976. It ran at the speed of 1 megahertz and had 4K
of memory. Today, a Dell Dimension E310 with a Pentium
4 processor provides 2.9 billion times Apple I’s
processing power and millions of times more memory,
plus a free flat-panel screen and lots of other features.
It costs about $500. Is there any doubt about technology’s
tendency toward better and cheaper?
Numbers like these, of course,
don’t reveal what’s happening in the economy
as a whole. So I keep a keen eye on the broad data and
forecasts for growth, inflation, employment and other
indicators of the economy’s ups and downs.
Even the best statistical fact
book cannot replace human experience. One of my most
reliable sources of information on the economy is the
talks I have regularly with CEOs, COOs and CFOs at dozens
of companies, large and small.
These are real-time decisionmakers
who are on the front lines, doing the business of America,
and they are one of the key inputs the Federal Reserve
needs in formulating monetary policy.
These business leaders are often
the first to spot dominant and shifting trends—in
demand, in hiring, in pricing power, in technology.
Many are plugged into the world economy, and they can
tell you about India, China or almost anyplace else.
The numbers and the anecdotes
work together to provide me a timely and in-depth view
of the regional and national economies.
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Richard W. Fisher |
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President and CEO |
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Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas |
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