Fourth Quarter 1996
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

Economic Review was published until 1999.

Neighborhood School Characteristics: What Signals Quality to Homebuyers?
Kathy J. Hayes and Lori L. Taylor

Popular wisdom and economic research suggest that the quality of the neighborhood school should be an important determinant of housing values. Many researchers have found that housing values are higher where school spending or student test scores are higher. However, few economists consider these characteristics good indicators of school quality. Meanwhile, no one has examined whether the economists' notion of school quality-the school's marginal effect on students-is a school characteristic that matters to homebuyers.

Using a model of new home purchases and historical data on homes in the Dallas Independent School District (DISD), Kathy Hayes and Lori Taylor demonstrate that property values do reflect the characteristics of the neighborhood school. They present evidence that property values reflect student test scores but not school expenditures. Interestingly, they also find that the relationship between test scores and property values arises from an underlying relationship between property values and the marginal effects of schools. Thus, their analysis suggests that homebuyers and economists share the same definition of school quality.

Trade Deficits: Causes and Consequences
David M. Gould and Roy J. Ruffin

According to conventional wisdom, trade balances reflect a country's competitive strength-the lower the trade deficit, the stronger the country's industries and the higher its rate of economic growth. In this article, David Gould and Roy Ruffin review the history of the conventional wisdom and empirically examine whether large overall trade deficits or bilateral trade imbalances are associated with lower rates of economic growth. They find that, once the fundamental determinants of growth have been accounted for, trade imbalances have little effect on rates of economic growth.

Can Mortgage Applications Help Predict Home Sales?
John V. Duca

In this article, John Duca finds that the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) index of home mortgage applications can help forecast home sales. Alone, the index is a good, albeit imperfect, predictor of total home sales. But when included along with housing affordability and real, after-tax mortgage rate data, the index does not add extra information if one disregards differences in data release lags.

The index is available roughly three to four weeks ahead of the two alternative indicators. Taking into account its greater timeliness, it provides some extra information on home sales beyond that in the two other indicators considered. Given this qualification, the MBA index can help predict overall home sales. In addition, the long-run equilibrium relationships suggest that its usefulness may increase in the future. Nevertheless, the index should be used cautiously. It is still relatively new, and evidence suggests it may be misleading under some circumstances.