Charts: Using the Purchasing Managers’ Index to Assess the Economy’s Strength and the Likely Direction of Monetary Policy

VOLUME 1, NUMBER 6, 2002

AUTHOR:

Evan F. Koenig
Vice President and Senior Economist, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

TABLE 1:	Forecasting GDP Growth: Does the PMI Have Real-Time Marginal Predictive Power? (1980:1–2002:1) (XLS)
NOTE:	"DATE" indicates actual date for which the data is reported. "EMP" indicates employment, "LEMP" indicates lagged one month—that is, last month; "L2EMP" indicates lagged two months, etc. "IP" indicates industrial production. "RET" indicates retail sales.