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CLAE Working Papers
Working papers from the Federal
Reserve Bank of Dallas are preliminary drafts circulated
for professional comment.
2005
| 2004 | 2003
| 2002 | 2001
| 1999
2003 Working Papers
0403
Argentina's
Lost Decade and Subsequent Recovery: Hits and Misses
of the Neoclassical Growth Model [PDF]
Finn E. Kydland and Carlos E. J. M. Zarazaga
We examine the economic depression
that Argentina suffered in the 1980s, as well as the
subsequent recovery, from the perspective of growth
theory, taking total factor productivity as exogenous.
The predictions of the neoclassical growth model conform
rather well with the evidence for the "lost decade"
depression and at the same time point to a puzzle: Investment
did not recover in the subsequent decade of the 1990s
nearly as fast as it should have according to that same
model.
0303
Financial
Liberalization, Market Discipline and Bank Risk [PDF]
William C. Gruben, Jahyeong Koo and Robert R. Moore
In the literature on systemic
banking crises, two common themes are: (1) Risky lending
often follows bank liberalization. (2) Lack of market
discipline encourages risky lending. That not all liberalizations
are followed by financial crisis and that financial
systems without market discipline sometimes operate
without incident invites examination of these themes.
In a test of six countries, we find that our measure
of bank risk increases significantly in the wake of
financial liberalizations, but only where depositors
fail to discipline banks. Our measures of market discipline
and bank risk, however, are persistently inversely related.
0203
The
Openness-Inflation Puzzle Revisited [PDF]
William C. Gruben and Darryl McLeod
Dynamic panel estimates show the
negative relation between trade openness and inflation
found by Romer (1993) but questioned by Terra (1998)
became more robust in the 1990s, both among high income
OECD and developing countries. Also during the 1990s,
openness was associated with less variable inflation
and had a stronger disinflation effect in economies
with floating exchange rates.
0103
Choosing
Among Rival Poverty Rates: Some Tests for Latin America
[PDF]
William C. Gruben and Darryl McLeod
Poverty rates are now widely available,
but are they reliable? Wide variations in estimated
poverty rates for the same poverty line, year and country
reflect an underlying reality: there is no widely accepted
procedure for estimating national poverty rates. This
paper proposes a simple, ex post procedure for selecting
poverty rates that have certain desirable properties.
Absolute poverty measures, estimated uniformly across
countries, should be correlated with nonmonetary indicators
that reflect the consequences of physical deprivation
(e.g., malnutrition, birth rates, school attendance).
A series of non-nested hypotheses tests are used to
choose among competing poverty and income measures.
This method is applied to screen the 66 alternate poverty
measures computed by Székeley, Lustig et al.
(2000) for 17 Latin countries. These tests identify
10–15 poverty measures that meet the standards
set forth for useful poverty measures. This final group
of poverty measures is then ranked using various performance
criteria.
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