A list of articles published by members of the Dallas Fed Research staff.

2008 | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 | 2000

2007 Academic Publications

An Economic Interpretation of Suicide Cycles in Japan
Contemporary Economic Policy, 2008, Vol. 26, Issue 1
Jahyeong Koo and W. Michael Cox
Abstract: Suicide rates in Japan have increased dramatically in recent years, making Japan's male rate the highest among developed economies. This study revises the standard economic model of suicide to accommodate Japan's experience, focusing on the change in human capital for the unemployed. We then use the new model and detrended data to empirically investigate the relationship between the suicide cycle and the unemployment cycle. Unlike previous aggregate time series studies, we find that the relationship between the suicide rate and the unemployment rate is significantly and robustly positive for both men and women even after controlling for several social variables.

The Relative Price Effects of Monetary Shocks
Journal of Macroeconomics, Volume 29, Issue 1, March 2007
Mark A. Wynne and Nathan Balke
Abstract: We document the response of the individual components of the Producer Price Index (PPI) to commonly used measures of monetary shocks, and show that these responses are at variance with many widely used models of monetary nonneutrality. Monetary shocks are shown to have large relative price effects, resulting in an increase in the dispersion of the cross-section distribution of prices. Furthermore, in response to a contractionary (expansionary) monetary shock, a substantial number of prices tend to rise (fall). Most existing models of monetary nonneutrality are incapable of replicating these types of relative price responses.

Crime on the U.S.–Mexico Border: The Effect of Undocumented Immigration and Border Enforcement
Migraciones Internacionales 4, June 2007
Pia Orrenius and Roberto Coronado
Abstract: In the 1990s, the U.S. border led the nation in the decline of property-related crimes, while violent crime rates fell twice as fast in the U.S. as in the median border county. This paper asks how changes in undocumented immigration and border enforcement have played a role in generating these divergent trends. We find that migrant apprehensions—our proxy for the volume of undocumented immigration—are correlated with violent crime and that increased border enforcement has not had a deterrent effect on such crime. Rather, increased border enforcement in a sector has led to more violent crime in neighboring sectors. In contrast to the results for violent crime, property crime is not correlated with migrant apprehensions, and while there is some evidence that border enforcement has lowered property crime rates, this result is sensitive to the model's specification. Our findings also indicate that the improved border economy over this period, specifically rapid job growth, played a significant role in lowering property crime rates.

The Control of Money
Journal of Private Enterprise, Vol. XXII, No. 1, Fall 2006
Mark A.Wynne
Abstract: In Capitalism and Freedom, Milton Friedman argued that monetary policy should be determined by a rule, specifically a money growth rule, and that the exchange rate between national monies should be flexible and market-determined. This paper reviews the arguments Friedman made to support his case, and considers the impact of Friedman’s proposals on the theory and practice of monetary policy over the past forty years.

Does Immigration Affect Wages? A Look at Occupation-Level Evidence
Labour Economics 14, October 2007
Pia Orrenius and Madeline Zavodny
Abstract: Previous research has reached mixed conclusions about the effect of higher levels of immigration on the wages of natives. This paper reexamines this question using data from the Current Population Survey and the Immigration and Naturalization Service and focuses on differential effects by skill level. Using occupation as a proxy for skill, we find that an increase in the fraction of foreign-born workers tends to lower the wages of natives in blue collar occupations—particularly after controlling for endogeneity—but does not have a statistically significant negative effect among natives in skilled occupations. The results also indicate that immigrants adjusting their immigration status within the U.S., but not newly arriving immigrants, have a significant negative impact on the wages of low-skilled natives. This suggests that immigrants become closer substitutes for natives as they spend more time in the U.S.