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A list of articles published
by members of the Dallas Fed Research staff.
2008
| 2007
| 2006
| 2005
| 2004
| 2003
| 2002
| 2001
| 2000
2002 Academic Publications
Capital
Account Liberalization and Inflation 
Economics Letters,
October 2002
William C Gruben and Darryl McLeod
Abstract: Evidence from over 100 countries
suggests a strong link between capital account openness
and lower inflation. In particular, widespread capital
account liberalization during the early 1990s appears
to have contributed to the world-wide disinflation observed
during that decade. Alternative indices of capital account
openness, including those of Quinn and Toyoda [Measuring
International Financial Openness and Closure, Department
of Political Science, Georgetown University, Washington,
DC, 1996, mimeo] yield similar results.
Safety and Soudness and the
CRA: Is There a Conflict?
Economic Inquiry, July
2002
Jeffery W. Gunther
Abstract: Ordered probit regressions
of the supervisory ratings assigned to banks point to
a conflict between the credit enhancement objectives
associated with the Community Reinvestment Act (CRA)
and financial safety and soundness standards. Aggressive
banking strategies tend to help CRA ratings but hurt
safety and soundness ratings. In addition, banks with
financial problems are more likely to receive substandard
CRA ratings, even though their condition may require
a retrenchment from CRA objectives. Finally, there is
some limited evidence to suggest that a greater focus
on lending in low-income neighborhoods helps CRA ratings
but at the expense of safety and soundness.
The Likelihood and Extent
of Banks’ Involvement with Interest Rate Derivatives
as End Users
Research in Finance,
October 2002
Jeffery W. Gunther and Thomas F. Siems
Abstract: Based on annual data for
medium-sized U.S. commercial banks from 1991 through
1998, we investigate both the decision of whether to
participate in interest rate derivatives and, for those
banks participating, the extent of their involvement
as end users. We find the hedging of balance sheet positions
is an important motivation for involvement in derivatives.
In addition, the extent of involvement is directly related
to a bank’s capital position. These results pointing
to the typical end user as a financially secure bank
seeking to hedge unwanted risk argue against the need
for any additional restrictions on derivatives activities.
Deposit Insurance and Moral
Hazard: Evidence from Texas Banking in the 1920s
Journal of Economic History,
September 2002
Linda M. Hooks and Kenneth J. Robinson
Abstract: Using recently collected
examination data from a sample of texas state-chartered
banks over the period 1919–1926, the role of moral
hazard in increasing ex-ante asset risk is
explored. Analyzing individual bank-level data, we find
that the existence of deposit insurance for state-chartered
banks increased their likelihood of failure. Increases
in loan concentrations followed declines in capitalization
at insured state banks. However, we find no statistically
significant relationship between loan concentrations
and capitalization at uninsured national banks or at
state banks before the introduction of deposit insurance.
These results show a moral-hazard effect at work.
X-Efficiency in Banking: Looking
Beyond the Balance Sheet
Journal of Money,
Credit, and Banking, November 2002
Thomas F. Siems and Jeffrey A. Clark
Abstract: The distribution free and
stochastic econometric frontier estimation methods are
used to derive bank specific measures of cost and profit
X-efficiency. This is done to investigate the importance
of including aggregate measures of off-balance sheet
(OBS) activities. The results indicate that economic
cost and production cost X-efficiency estimates increase
with the inclusion of the OBS measure. Profit X-efficiency
estimates are largely unaffected. Further, the composition
of banks’ OBS activities appears to help explain
interbank differences in cost and profit X-efficiency
estimates, whereas bank size and the mix between on-
and off-balance-sheet banking activities are largely
uncorrelated with the X-efficiency estimates.
B2B E-Commerce and the Search
for the Holy Grail
Journal of e-Business
and Information Technology, February 2002
Thomas F. Siems
Abstract: Through new online marketplaces
and improved supply chain management practices, business-to-business
(B2B) electronic commerce (e-commerce) is changing the
way transactions are processed, how business relationships
are formed, and how fast the U.S. economy will grow.
By improving the flow, timeliness, and accuracy of information,
B2B e-commerce will move markets closer to the textbook
model of perfect competition, which is the Holy Grail
of economics. With many well-informed buyers and sellers,
low-cost access to information, extremely low transaction
costs, and reduced barriers to entry, B2B e-commerce
boosts business productivity and lowers costs. But the
long-run beneficiaries of these improvements will be
consumers, as continued productivity improvements from
B2B e-commerce will raise living standards and reduce
inflationary pressures.
Evaluating the Productive Efficiency
and Performance of U.S. Commercial Banks
Managerial Finance,
May 2002
Thomas F. Siems, Richard S. Barr, Kory A. Killgo and
Sheri Zimmel
Abstract: We use a constrained multiplier,
input-oriented, data envelopment analysis (DEA) model
to evaluate the productive efficiency of U.S. commercial
banks from 1984 to 1998. We find strong and consistent
relationships between efficiency and independent measures
of performance. Moreover, we find the impact of varying
economic conditions is mediated to some extent by the
relative efficiencies of banks operating in these conditions.
Finally, we find a close relationship between efficiency
and soundness as determined by bank examiner ratings.
The model could be useful to banks in benchmarking with
other institutions and regulators as a complementary
off-site surveillance tool in the bank examination process.
The Social Security Surplus,
the Trust Fund, and the Federal Budget
Tax Notes, February
2002
Alan D. Viard
Abstract: This report clarifies the
economic effects of the social security surplus and
the trust fund, stressing the distinction between the
actual surplus and the trust fund accounting mechanism
used to record it. The social security surplus contributes
to government saving by reducing the overall government's
debt to the public, thereby providing a fiscal gain
to future taxpayers and spending recipients. This effect
is diminished to the extent that the social security
surplus triggers an offsetting response in the remainder
of the budget. Because the trust fund is merely an accounting
device, it neither amplifies nor negates the fiscal
gain provided by the surplus. Instead, the trust fund
merely allocates the fiscal gain within the government.
Despite the fiscal gain provided by the surplus, future
generations continue to face a severe fiscal burden
under the current-law baseline. A larger social security
surplus would alleviate this problem.
Regional Specialization, Rolling
Recessions and Risk Sharing in a Monetary Union
Irish Banking Review,
Spring 2002
Mark A. Wynne
Abstract: The monetary union
between the states and regions of the U.S. has been
a fertile source of insights about the long-run prospects
for European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). Many
have argued that labour mobility has played a key role
in facilitating adjustment to local ("asymmetric") shocks
in the U.S. and that the absence of such mobility within
the twelve-nation euro area spells trouble for EMU in
the long term. Labour mobility is simply one of the
mechanisms available for smoothing asymmetric shocks:
others are also available. This article reviews how
one asymmetric shock played out in the U.S., illustrating
the key role of migration. It also argues that looking
to the past is a poor guide to what we may expect to
see in the future: the fact that EMU has occurred with
a wide array of other reforms will greatly facilitate
the development of adjustment mechanisms that will smooth
asymmetric shocks in the future.
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