2008

Storms on the Horizon
Remarks before the Commonwealth Club of California
San Francisco, California
May 28, 2008
"Even the perception that the Fed is pursuing a cheap-money strategy to accommodate fiscal burdens, should it take root, is a paramount risk to the long-term welfare of the U.S. economy. The Federal Reserve will never let this happen. It is not an option. Ever. Period."

Selling Our Services to the World (With an Ode to Chicago)
Remarks before the Chicago Council on Global Affairs
Chicago
April 17, 2008
"The United States, like Chicago, can continue to prosper only if it faces economic change head-on, choosing to compete rather than retreat, seeking out new opportunities in a globalizing economy, where goods, services, money and ideas flow freely across international borders."

The Egocentricity of the Present (Prefaced by the Tale of Ruth and Emma)
Remarks before a Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Community Forum
San Antonio, Texas
April 9, 2008
"In building the bridge to restore financial order and efficiency, my primary interest is to do the minimum necessary to get the job done. And no more. In so doing, my hope is that we restore the long-term faith of the millions of risk takers who make our economy so mighty."

Balancing Inflation and Growth
Remarks before the Society of Business Economists
London, England
March 4, 2008
"At present, we simply do not have the ability to adequately account for the impact globalization has on the gearing of our domestic economy. Absent that capacity, we cannot, in my opinion, confidently assume that slower U.S. economic growth will quell U.S. inflation and, more important, keep inflationary expectations anchored."

Challenges for Monetary Policy in a Globalized Economy
Remarks before the Global Interdependence Center
Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
January 17, 2008
"...the FOMC does not intend to just squat and wait should economic data and sound risk management signal that monetary accommodation is required."

2007

The U.S. Economy, Globalization and Inflation Measurement (With Brief References to Brawls, Beer and Bikinis)
Remarks before the Australian Business Economists
Sydney, Australia
November 14, 2007
"Our job has been made more complicated by globalization—the freer flow of goods, services, money, ideas and people across national borders. Its present incarnation owes a great deal to the revolution in information technology. Faster, cheaper and better communications are breaking down barriers to international business and knitting the world's economies closer together faster than Skippy could outsmart a pack of hungry dingoes."

Inflation Measurement and Price Volatility
Remarks Before the Charlotte Economics Club
Charlotte, N.C.
October 4, 2007
"Those of us responsible for crafting U.S. monetary policy cannot afford to be distracted by the flux of short-term price changes that are destined to be unwound. Our eye should be focused on underlying inflationary pressures, some of which may indeed be coming from food and energy markets. Routinely excluding food and oil price movements from our inflation gauges may have made sense in the 1970s, the 1980s and even the 1990s—but not now, nor in the next few years."

You Earn What You Learn
Delivered to the North Dallas Chamber of Commerce Seventh Annual Real Estate Symposium
Dallas, Texas
September 24, 2007
"The vital capital stock of our modern economy is not our buildings or our factories or our farms. It is our brains. It is our ability to conjure new and better ideas, inventions and solutions. It is our commitment to exceptional customer service. It is our designs for better buildings, faster computers and more successful space flights."

The U.S., Mexican and Border Economies
Remarks before a Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Community Luncheon
Laredo, Texas
September 10, 2007
Speech in Spanish
"It is fair to say that I am encouraged by what I have heard against a background of constant negative speculation and the occasional discordant note, such as last week's employment numbers. Our economy appears to be weathering the storm thus far. The future path of that storm and the appropriate policy course, however, are still to be determined."

The Southern States in a Globalized Economy
Remarks before the Southern Governors’ Association 73rd Annual Meeting
Biloxi, Mississippi
August 25, 2007
"There is no great secret about how to lay the groundwork for Southern states' success in harvesting and harnessing—in mastering—globalization. The key to adapting to and profiting from globalization lies in education."

The Dog That Does Not Bark but Packs a Big Bite: Services in the U.S. Economy
Remarks before the U.S.–China Business Council, the Coalition of Service Industries and the American Council of Life Insurers
Washington, D.C.
May 14, 2007
"The service sector may not be as noisy or get as much analytical or political attention as the manufacturing sector, but it has a significant bite in terms of its impact on economic performance.... As we seek to conduct monetary policy, we will have to develop new methods for determining exactly how the service sector's bite affects the business cycle and economic behavior."

Comments on Current Conundra
Remarks to the 2007 Annual Conference of the Investment Adviser Association
Austin, Texas
April 26, 2007
"Many options would improve the fiscal fitness of our entitlement system and reduce the need for drastic action elsewhere in the federal budget. But let’s be honest. These remedies work only because some people would get less than they are currently slated to receive. Painful as that may be, the question is whether other options would be even more difficult."

Risk Is a Many Splendored Thing: Lessons Learned
Remarks to the Austin Mortgage Bankers Association
Austin, Texas
April 4, 2007
"The elimination of risk can never be the goal of any type of policymaker in a capitalist system. Risk becomes a problem only when it is excessive or when it is abused—a proposition that is especially true in today's environment, where financial markets are increasingly globally integrated and information moves with the click of a mouse."

Brief Comments on the Economy and the Business of the Dallas Fed
Remarks before the Park Cities Rotary Club
Dallas, Texas
February 9, 2007
"At this early juncture in 2007, I think it entirely reasonable to expect the economy to maintain an average pace of 3 percent growth for the year. And, if we at the Fed do our job well, we should be able to accommodate that growth rate while bringing inflation down below 2 percent."

2006

A Year-End Wrap-Up of the Economy and a Peek Ahead
Remarks before the Longview Rotary Club
Longview, Texas
December 19, 2006
"I do not agree with pundits who argue about whether we can engineer a 'soft landing.' 'Landing' implies stopping. I prefer to say that the Fed’s job is to provide the monetary conditions necessary to pilot our economy at a comfortable cruising altitude and speed while preventing the engine from overheating with inflation. As we look to 2007, I consider this objective to be within reach." 

Confessions of a Data Dependent
Remarks before the New York Association for Business Economics
New York
November 2, 2006
"Globalization brings new influences into the Fed's navigation calculations to determine the best flight path for the U.S. economy. To determine that course ... we must develop a better understanding of the new forces exerting themselves on the aircraft we have been charged with flying. That aircraft no longer flies solely in domestic space, affected soley by domestic factors. Rather, it flies all over the world, requiring more sophisticated navigation instruments to monitor changing global and domestic economic conditions, enabling us to pilot the craft safely and efficiently."

The Current State of the U.S. and Mexican Economies: Where Do We Go From Here?
Remarks at a Policy Forum hosted by the El Paso Branch of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and Monterrey Branch of the Banco de México
Monterrey, N.L., México
September 25, 2006
Speech in Spanish
"As I sit at the FOMC table, I continue to fret more about inflation than I do about growth. While I am well aware of the risks to economic growth, the history of inverted yield curves, and the ever present possibility of exogenous shocks in a politically hazardous world, the “balance of risk,” in my book, is still tilted to the inflation side of the equation."

An Update on the Status of the Economy and Its Implications for Monetary Policy
Remarks for the Annual Joint Luncheon of Commercial Real Estate Women Dallas and North Texas Certified Commercial Investment Members
Dallas, Texas
August 16, 2006
"In determining future policy, my colleagues and I will watch and listen and “taste” the indicators carefully as they come in. And, as we said at the conclusion of our last FOMC meeting, we will act accordingly. If anybody tells you with absolute conviction that the Fed is done raising interest rates or with equal conviction that they have only paused and will raise rates more starting in September or October, remind yourself that at best—and I’m being generous here—they are only guessing."  

The Economy at Midyear
Remarks at a Community Luncheon hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, San Antonio Branch
Corpus Christi, Texas
June 14, 2006
"Against the background of sustained high prices for oil and gasoline and the inevitable propensity of sellers of goods and services to try to pass on cost increases, the brow begins to furrow in contemplating the inflation picture. On the one hand, I know that the Trimmed Mean PCE Deflator is running at a rate that is just too corrosive to be accepted by a virtuous central banker. But I also know, having been party to it, of the incremental tightenings to which we have been subjecting the base interest rate. And I am fully aware that there is a lag between the time we tighten the valve and the time the impact of that tightening is felt."  

Globalization's Impact on U.S. Growth and Inflation
Remarks before the Dallas Assembly
Dallas, Texas
May 22, 2006
"Our globalizing economy is not a vintage car. It is more like a 2006 BMW Z4 roadster, fully equipped and Bluetooth enabled. It is a very complex, highly integrated, technologically advanced and brilliantly engineered vehicle that just cannot help exceeding the posted speed limit."  

Asia, Trade Deficits and the Health of the U.S. Economy
Remarks before the Greater Dallas Asian American Chamber of Commerce
Dallas, Texas
February 23, 2006
"As long as the Federal Reserve does its job of holding inflation at bay, and as long as our political leaders resist protectionism and let the private sector get on with its work, we will remain the world’s predominant economic machine."  

Trade Deficits and the Health of the U.S. Economy
Remarks before the Little Rock Rotary Club
Little Rock
February 14, 2006
"If we create the conditions to let our private sector do what it does by its very nature—constantly adapt and reposition itself—then we have nothing to fear from competition from our trading partners, including those with whom we presently run big deficits."  

The United States: Still the Growth Engine for the World Economy?
Remarks at the Institute of Economic Affairs’ 23rd Annual State of the Economy Conference
London
February 6, 2006
"I posit that China and India and the new players will enhance American productivity and abet U.S. growth, not threaten it. These rising economies will provide sources of inputs American companies can use to drive down costs and increase variety for consumers. They will increase competition—which is good. Competition sharpens the wits and improves muscle tone."  

2005

Contemplating the Nature of Money and the Capillaries of Capitalism
Remarks Before Downtown Waco Inc.
Waco, Texas
October 6, 2005
"Money flows are an economy’s lifeblood, and the Federal Reserve’s great responsibility lies in maintaining the cardiovascular system of American capitalism. The Federal Reserve’s factory operations—from payments processing to bank regulation to the New York desk’s trading activities—keep open the arteries, veins and even the capillaries of capitalism. We cannot let the equivalent of sclerosis block the arteries and disrupt the workings of the circulatory system. Nor can we let the inflation virus infect the blood supply and poison the system."

A Perspective on the Economic Outlook
Remarks before the Seventh Annual Economic Forum of the Greater Dallas Chamber
Dallas, Texas
October 4, 2005
"We heard that the pace of economic growth had begun to slow slightly prior to Katrina and that the disruptions from Katrina, and later from Rita, would initially slow growth a bit more. The U.S. economy grew at a 3.3 percent annual rate in the second quarter. Now, most forecasters anticipate growth closer to 3 percent in the fourth quarter. Many of them expect the bounce back from rebuilding the Gulf Coast to begin in early 2006, though the impact will be spread over several years. In the past, this pattern has repeated itself for a wide range of shocks and natural disasters. The one common element has been the resilience and flexibility of our free market economy."

An Overview of Banking, and the U.S. and Texas Economies
Remarks before the Texas Department of Banking Staff Conference
Saluting Texas Bank Examiners’ 100th Anniversary
Austin, Texas
September 12, 2005
"While Katrina’s damage to Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama is massive, the first-tier macroeconomic hit to the overall economy will be less so. Early estimates are notoriously unreliable. What’s more, we tend to underestimate the inventiveness and cleverness of people and markets to respond to adversity."

The World Economy: Sharpening Our Peripheral Vision
Remarks before the Council of Economic Advisors to Utah Governor Jon Huntsman Jr.
Salt Lake City, Utah
July 29, 2005
"China’s emergence will trigger changes to our economy, but they will not come so fast or be so big as to overwhelm us. We will have time to adjust. We have proven time and again that we thrive when we face up to the challenge of vigorous competition."