2008

Storms on the Horizon
Remarks before the Commonwealth Club of California
San Francisco, California
May 28, 2008
"Even the perception that the Fed is pursuing a cheap-money strategy to accommodate fiscal burdens, should it take root, is a paramount risk to the long-term welfare of the U.S. economy. The Federal Reserve will never let this happen. It is not an option. Ever. Period."

The Egocentricity of the Present (Prefaced by the Tale of Ruth and Emma)
Remarks before a Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Community Forum
San Antonio, Texas
April 9, 2008
"In building the bridge to restore financial order and efficiency, my primary interest is to do the minimum necessary to get the job done. And no more. In so doing, my hope is that we restore the long-term faith of the millions of risk takers who make our economy so mighty."

Comments on Stylized Facts of Globalization and World Inflation
Remarks for a panel discussion at the International Symposium of the Banque de France on Globalisation, Inflation and Monetary Policy
Paris, France
March 7, 2008
"In today’s world, where investors can move their funds instantly from one currency to another to avoid depreciation, the price central bankers pay for high inflation is much higher than in the past. Understanding this, you can see why I am a steadfast inflation-fighting owl."

Balancing Inflation and Growth
Remarks before the Society of Business Economists
London, England
March 4, 2008
"At present, we simply do not have the ability to adequately account for the impact globalization has on the gearing of our domestic economy. Absent that capacity, we cannot, in my opinion, confidently assume that slower U.S. economic growth will quell U.S. inflation and, more important, keep inflationary expectations anchored."

Defending Central Bank Independence
Remarks at Instituto Tecnológico Autónomo de México
Mexico City, Mexico
February 7, 2008
Speech in Spanglish
"Monetary policy acts with a lag. I liken it to a good single malt whiskey or perhaps truly great tequila: It takes time before you feel its full effect. The Fed has to be very careful now to add just the right amount of stimulus to the punchbowl without mixing in the potential to juice up inflation once the effect of the new punch kicks in."

Challenges for Monetary Policy in a Globalized Economy
Remarks before the Global Interdependence Center
Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
January 17, 2008
"...the FOMC does not intend to just squat and wait should economic data and sound risk management signal that monetary accommodation is required."

2007

The U.S. Economy, Globalization and Inflation Measurement (With Brief References to Brawls, Beer and Bikinis)
Remarks before the Australian Business Economists
Sydney, Australia
November 14, 2007
"Our job has been made more complicated by globalization—the freer flow of goods, services, money, ideas and people across national borders. Its present incarnation owes a great deal to the revolution in information technology. Faster, cheaper and better communications are breaking down barriers to international business and knitting the world's economies closer together faster than Skippy could outsmart a pack of hungry dingoes."

Inflation Measurement and Price Volatility
Remarks Before the Charlotte Economics Club
Charlotte, N.C.
October 4, 2007
"Those of us responsible for crafting U.S. monetary policy cannot afford to be distracted by the flux of short-term price changes that are destined to be unwound. Our eye should be focused on underlying inflationary pressures, some of which may indeed be coming from food and energy markets. Routinely excluding food and oil price movements from our inflation gauges may have made sense in the 1970s, the 1980s and even the 1990s—but not now, nor in the next few years."

You Earn What You Learn
Delivered to the North Dallas Chamber of Commerce Seventh Annual Real Estate Symposium
Dallas, Texas
September 24, 2007
"The vital capital stock of our modern economy is not our buildings or our factories or our farms. It is our brains. It is our ability to conjure new and better ideas, inventions and solutions. It is our commitment to exceptional customer service. It is our designs for better buildings, faster computers and more successful space flights."

Introductory Remarks to the Price Measurement for Monetary Policy Conference
Given to a Conference Organized by the Federal Reserve Banks of Dallas and Cleveland
Dallas, Texas
May 24, 2007
"One of our main criticisms here at the Dallas Fed of much of the core inflation literature is that it lacks theoretical coherence. It reminds me of the time-honored saying that an economist is someone who sees something work in practice and then wonders if it can work in theory."

Comments on Current Conundra
Remarks to the 2007 Annual Conference of the Investment Adviser Association
Austin, Texas
April 26, 2007
"Many options would improve the fiscal fitness of our entitlement system and reduce the need for drastic action elsewhere in the federal budget. But let’s be honest. These remedies work only because some people would get less than they are currently slated to receive. Painful as that may be, the question is whether other options would be even more difficult."

Fiscal Issues: From Here to Eternity
(with Apologies to Burt Lancaster, Deborah Kerr and Donna Reed)
Remarks before the Equipment Leasing and Finance Association
Financial Institutions Conference
Irving, Texas
April 16, 2007
"Yes, we remain the biggest player on the global stage, but if we fail to get our fiscal house in order, we could bequeath our descendants unconscionable debt and slow the global economy to boot. Is that to be our legacy?"

2006

Confessions of a Data Dependent
Remarks before the New York Association for Business Economics
New York
November 2, 2006
"Globalization brings new influences into the Fed's navigation calculations to determine the best flight path for the U.S. economy. To determine that course ... we must develop a better understanding of the new forces exerting themselves on the aircraft we have been charged with flying. That aircraft no longer flies solely in domestic space, affected soley by domestic factors. Rather, it flies all over the world, requiring more sophisticated navigation instruments to monitor changing global and domestic economic conditions, enabling us to pilot the craft safely and efficiently."

Monetary Policymaking in a Globalized World
Remarks at the HSBC Global Investment Seminar
London
October 10, 2006
"My point is simply that the committee’s wisdom would be enhanced, and the economy would benefit, from having analytical tools to help us build more practicable models than what we currently have to guide our thinking as we make monetary policy in a complicated, reconfigured, globalized world."

A Primer on Inflation (with Comments on Real Estate in the Metroplex)
Remarks at the 6th Annual Real Estate Symposium, North Dallas Chamber of Commerce
Dallas, Texas
August 30, 2006
"Our current analysis points to an economy at a crossroads. High energy prices, rising interest rates and the slowdown in a red-hot housing market have taken some of the steam out of what had been a fairly robust expansion. At the same time, our current inflation indicators are not presently as well behaved as I would like them to be. Central bankers are always concerned when inflation starts to rear its ugly head. We know from experience that once inflation gains momentum, it becomes harder and harder to stop." 

An Update on the Status of the Economy and Its Implications for Monetary Policy
Remarks for the Annual Joint Luncheon of Commercial Real Estate Women Dallas and North Texas Certified Commercial Investment Members
Dallas, Texas
August 16, 2006
"In determining future policy, my colleagues and I will watch and listen and “taste” the indicators carefully as they come in. And, as we said at the conclusion of our last FOMC meeting, we will act accordingly. If anybody tells you with absolute conviction that the Fed is done raising interest rates or with equal conviction that they have only paused and will raise rates more starting in September or October, remind yourself that at best—and I’m being generous here—they are only guessing."  

2005

Globalization and Government Policy
Remarks at the Fifth Annual Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Policy Forum
Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
December 2, 2005
"Coddling inflation by monetizing deficits is not an option in a globalized world. It would erode our currency's value and undermine our economy's potential to grow and create jobs." 

Globalization and Monetary Policy
Warren and Anita Manshel Lecture in American Foreign Policy
Harvard University, Cambridge, Mass.
November 3, 2005
"The destruction of communism and the creation of vast new sources of inputs and production have upset all the calculations and equations that the very best economics minds, including those of the Federal Reserve staff—and I consider them the best of all—have used as their guideposts. The old models simply do not apply to the new, real world."

Globalization and Texas
Remarks before The Houston Forum
Houston, Texas
October 19, 2005
"We have millions of managers in our business community who have become experts at adapting to economic change with breathtaking alacrity. I am talking not just about CEOs but also about middle managers who operate supply chains, control inventories and fine-tune operations in our mighty economic machine. They are an important reason we have succeeded in growing our economy while others—great nations like Japan and Germany—had been stagnant, at least until adopting recent market-oriented reforms."

Contemplating the Nature of Money and the Capillaries of Capitalism
Remarks Before Downtown Waco Inc.
Waco, Texas
October 6, 2005
"Money flows are an economy’s lifeblood, and the Federal Reserve’s great responsibility lies in maintaining the cardiovascular system of American capitalism. The Federal Reserve’s factory operations—from payments processing to bank regulation to the New York desk’s trading activities—keep open the arteries, veins and even the capillaries of capitalism. We cannot let the equivalent of sclerosis block the arteries and disrupt the workings of the circulatory system. Nor can we let the inflation virus infect the blood supply and poison the system."

A Perspective on the Economic Outlook
Remarks before the Seventh Annual Economic Forum of the Greater Dallas Chamber
Dallas, Texas
October 4, 2005
"We heard that the pace of economic growth had begun to slow slightly prior to Katrina and that the disruptions from Katrina, and later from Rita, would initially slow growth a bit more. The U.S. economy grew at a 3.3 percent annual rate in the second quarter. Now, most forecasters anticipate growth closer to 3 percent in the fourth quarter. Many of them expect the bounce back from rebuilding the Gulf Coast to begin in early 2006, though the impact will be spread over several years. In the past, this pattern has repeated itself for a wide range of shocks and natural disasters. The one common element has been the resilience and flexibility of our free market economy."